PUBLIC RELEASE SOURCE REVIEW ยท INDEPENDENT ANALYTIC CASE FILE
CASE FILE 01 / 237UAP00051
237UAP00051
High-altitude public UAP report; score 110
HIGH-VALUE UNRESOLVED
Report No.
UAP-OM-01-237UAP00051
Disposition
HIGH-VALUE UNRESOLVED
Primary Case
237UAP00051
Generated
2026-05-20 18:32 UTC
Report Time
2021-05-20T19:49:00+00:00
Observer
37.50015, -76.98615
Source Case IDs
237UAP00051
Abstract
This case file evaluates a reported UAP sighting against the available orbital-object layer. No compact same-launch group fully identifies the file by itself. The final disposition is assigned under a normal-object favored standard, where ordinary aerospace/orbital explanations are preferred when they reasonably fit the report.
This is a standalone independent analysis prepared from public-source records and public orbital datasets. It is not an official government determination, classification marking, or agency-authored report.
1. Executive Summary
237UAP00051 was screened against historical public LEO catalog objects orbital elements at the extracted time and observer coordinate. The screen did not produce enough mundane evidence to close the case under the normal-object favored standard. Hard features retained for follow-up: radar/primary evidence.
1.1 Key Findings
Source score 110 based on: radar/primary-return language, multiple aircraft/facility witnesses, NORAD/AMOC/EADS/CONR check, negative official correlation, high-altitude report.
Report time used: 2021-05-20T19:49:00+00:00.
External object layer used: public LEO catalog objects.
Disposition standard: UNRESOLVED requires case-specific causal fit. Satellite density above the horizon is context only and cannot by itself resolve the report.
Non-causal context / rejection screens: very dense orbital-object sky background; context only, not causation; NASA/JPL known-small-body rejection screen present.
Remaining hard features: radar/primary evidence.
Objects above horizon: 839; at/above 10 deg: 401.
No compact same-launch/designator group survived the report threshold.
No explicit Starlink/balloon wording was found in the source excerpt used for ranking.
1.2 Bottom Line
HIGH-VALUE UNRESOLVED: Hard report features remain after the normal-object screens, such as primary/radar evidence, multiple witnesses, footage references, or motion language that still conflicts with the available object layer.
2. Source Control
The source-control table identifies the public report records reviewed for this case and lists public access links where available. The table is included so this PDF remains interpretable when distributed by itself.
Mode C intruder alert observed by controller moving slowly to the NW 50 SE of RIC @ FL400. 2 aircraft at FL390 were queried. First aircraft reported an unidentified aerial phenomenon just above them at FL400 and second aircraft (some time later) saw contrails above them at FL400. HQ DEN requested CONR to look at replay. CONR observed primary target off the HPW031 at 12 NM. The unknown phenomenon was traveling NW bound at approximately FL400. HQ DEN asked AMOC for replay and negative results found. ZDC reported calls signs of two previous aircraft as SCX3036 and PPJ510.
Report time used
2021-05-20T19:49:00+00:00
Observer coordinate used
37.50015, -76.98615
Observer source basis
aviation_radial:HPW031 at 12 NM (public text extract 237UAP00051)
4. Methodology
Spacetime extraction. The report time and observer coordinate were extracted from the public text report and normalized to UTC. Aviation fixes/radials were resolved during earlier preprocessing where applicable.
External object dataset. The object layer used historical Space-Track/TLE-derived public LEO catalog objects element rows. The analytic mode for this case is historical public LEO catalog objects element propagation and same-launch/designator sky grouping.
Propagation. Orbital elements were propagated to the report minute and observer location. For launch-object checks, samples around the report minute were retained. For Starlink group checks, objects above the horizon were clustered by sky position and filtered for same-launch groupings.
Comparison. The output was compared against the report's count of lights, direction cue, motion language, altitude/radar language, and whether the file itself already suggested a satellite explanation.
Causation standard. Mere object presence above the horizon is treated as background context only. A normal-object disposition requires a case-specific causal fit, such as a named launch object, a compact same-launch trajectory group, or source language that directly supports that object class.
Disposition assignment.Identified means a specific normal object fits the report spacetime and the hard reported features do not materially conflict. Normal-object favored means a case-specific ordinary aerospace/orbital candidate exists, but it is not a full named identification. Insufficient means the file is too thin to carry high anomaly value. High-value unresolved is used when radar, video, rapid maneuver, or multi-witness features remain after reasonable normal-object checks.
5. External Object Evidence
5.1 Search Volume and Density
This table is a screening layer only. Objects above the horizon show background opportunity; they do not establish causation unless a specific object or compact trajectory group matches the reported behavior.
public LEO catalog objects catalog IDs considered
16117
Historical element rows
16117
Above horizon at report minute
839
At/above 10 deg
401
Largest same-sky cluster
401
No compact same-launch/designator group survived the report threshold. In this condition, satellite density remains context only and cannot by itself resolve a report with hard features.
5.2 Same-Launch / Same-Designator Candidate Groups
#
Launch Date
Count
Azimuth Span
Elevation Span
Motion Labels
Members
No same-launch group identified.
5.3 Primary Group Members
Object
NORAD
Launch
Az
El
Range km
Apparent Motion
Element Age h
No members available.
5.4 Bright-Sky Context: Top public LEO catalog objects Objects by Elevation
Space-Track SATCAT metadata was pulled as a cached subset for NORAD catalog IDs appearing in this packet's evidence tables. This section adds owner/type/status context to the propagated object candidates.
Packet SATCAT subset rows
5370
Fetched
2026-05-19T01:19:50+00:00
This case NORAD IDs checked
30
SATCAT rows matched
30
Top owners
CIS: 13, US: 12, PRC: 3, ESA: 1, IT: 1
Object types
DEBRIS: 23, PAYLOAD: 4, ROCKET BODY: 3
5.7 Space-Track Metadata for Top Propagated Objects
NORAD
Object Name
Type
Owner
Launch Date
Decay Date
6845
COSMOS 588
PAYLOAD
CIS
1973-10-02
n/a
9063
DELTA 1 R/B
ROCKET BODY
US
1976-07-29
n/a
30247
FENGYUN 1C DEB
DEBRIS
PRC
1999-05-10
n/a
1312
DELTA 1 DEB
DEBRIS
US
1965-01-22
n/a
22196
IRIS R/B
ROCKET BODY
IT
1992-10-22
2025-12-23
31980
FENGYUN 1C DEB
DEBRIS
PRC
1999-05-10
n/a
21115
SL-8 DEB
DEBRIS
CIS
1991-02-12
n/a
8139
THORAD DELTA 1 DEB
DEBRIS
US
1974-11-15
n/a
41209
NOAA 16 DEB
DEBRIS
US
2000-09-21
n/a
18278
COSMOS 1375 DEB
DEBRIS
CIS
1982-06-06
n/a
8143
THORAD DELTA 1 DEB
DEBRIS
US
1974-11-15
n/a
13488
COSMOS 1275 DEB
DEBRIS
CIS
1981-06-04
n/a
5.6 NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Screen
This secondary object screen checks NASA/JPL close-approach objects near the report date and propagates their observer geometry through Horizons at the report coordinate. It is a known-object rejection layer, not a generic astronomy backdrop.
NASA/JPL CAD window
event date +/- 1 day, dist-max 0.2 au
Coordinate used
37.50, -76.99
Close-approach objects
14
Above horizon
2
Bright-ish above horizon
0 using apparent magnitude <= 10 screen
5.7 NASA/JPL Objects Above Horizon
Object
Close Approach UTC
Dist au
H
Az
El
App Mag
2021 JJ3
2021-May-20 07:37
0.0440378194740369
25.39
51.37
3.09
20.70
2021 JE1
2021-May-20 19:57
0.0190147367341412
26.61
83.43
36.04
21.04
5.8 NASA/JPL Bright-Candidate Result
Object
Az
El
App Mag
No above-horizon close-approach object met the apparent magnitude <= 10 screen.
NASA/JPL CAD listed 14 near-Earth close approaches in the event-date +/-1 day window within 0.2 au.
Horizons placed 2 of those objects above the local horizon at the report coordinate/time.
None of the above-horizon close-approach objects were remotely bright enough for naked-eye explanation using the mag<=10 screen.
5.9 NASA / NOAA / ADS-B Expansion Layer
This source layer adds free NASA context that was previously missing from most packet cases. It is contextual evidence; it does not replace aircraft, satellite, balloon, or radar causation tests.
Hour UTC
2021052019
Cloud amount
25.9%
Precipitation
0.0 mm/hr
10 m wind
2.64 m/s
Temperature
28.82 C
Relative humidity
39.9%
DONKI +/-1 day
CME: 5; FLR: 3; GST: 0
5.10 Horizons Sky Geometry Context
Object
Az
El
App Mag
Sun
255.71
50.42
-26.72
Moon
94.47
24.18
-10.63
Venus
244.21
63.47
-3.90
Mars
147.24
74.14
1.63
Jupiter
283.08
-35.55
-2.32
Saturn
291.37
-51.69
0.58
Sun elevation was 50.4 deg, so this was daylight geometry, not a dark-sky sighting.
Moon was above horizon at azimuth 94.5 deg / elevation 24.2 deg.
Planets above horizon: Venus (63.5 deg), Mars (74.1 deg).
NASA POWER cloud amount for the hour was 25.9%, with precipitation 0.0 mm/hr.
DONKI event counts in +/-1 day: GST=0, FLR=3, CME=5.
Requires targeted extraction from large daily history archives before claiming aircraft exhaustion.
NOAA GOES imagery
not yet exhausted
Needed for cloud/lightning visual context.
NOAA GOES ABI/GLM manifest
screened/present
Public S3 object availability for the report hour.
NOAA NEXRAD weather radar
not yet exhausted
Weather radar only; not ATC radar.
NOAA IGRA radiosonde
screened/present
Needed for balloon drift plausibility.
ASOS/METAR weather observations
screened/present
Nearest station surface observations around report time.
ADSB.lol historical: extract aircraft traces from no public ADSB.lol annual repo found for 2021-05-20, then filter +/-60 min and 250 nmi around 37.5001,-76.9861.
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI: batch context for 237UAP00051 at 2021-05-20T19:49:00+00:00.
NOAA GOES: pull nearest ABI/GLM products for the UTC hour and render cloud/lightning map.
NOAA NEXRAD: select nearest radar stations and render Level-II/III weather radar sweep around event time.
NOAA IGRA: find nearest radiosonde station launches bracketing the event and model wind drift for balloon-like descriptions.
Space-Track gp_history/decay: fetch exact historical element rows and decay/reentry status for top candidate NORAD IDs.
5.12 Weather, Imagery, and Balloon Query Plan
This plan identifies the concrete free sources needed for the next case-specific weather and balloon checks. These are not treated as completed exclusions until the data are downloaded and plotted.
surface visibility ranged 10-10 statute miles; no precipitation was reported in the retained observations; no low broken/overcast cloud ceiling was evident in the retained station observations. Surface ASOS/METAR observations describe airport-level weather and visibility; they do not by themselves prove conditions at the sighting altitude or line of sight.
Nearest sounding implies mean 0-12 km wind drift toward 268.9 deg at 5.43 m/s; a passive balloon could drift about 39.1 km in two hours under this crude layer-average model. Radiosonde winds are sparse station soundings; balloon drift remains approximate without launch time, ascent rate, object altitude, and exact line-of-sight bearing.
Station
Name
Distance km
Sounding UTC
Mean drift bearing
Mean speed m/s
2h drift km
Max wind
USM00072402
WALLOPS ISLAND; VA.
140.70
2021-05-21T00:00:00+00:00
268.90
5.43
39.10
36.00 at 9985.00 m
5.17 NOAA GOES ABI/GLM Public File Manifest
GOES public S3 objects are listed for the report hour where available. This is an availability manifest, not yet a rendered satellite image.
Generated figure copied from the local evidence-plot output. It is included as an analytic visualization, not as original sensor imagery.
7. Analytic Comparison
Criterion
Report Evidence
Analytic Treatment
Time constraint
2021-05-20T19:49:00+00:00
Directly used in propagation; this is a hard filter, not descriptive context.
Location constraint
37.50015, -76.98615
Directly used as observer point for azimuth/elevation/range computation.
Count / pattern
two-object/light language present
No compact same-launch count match; retained for unresolved report features.
Motion language
moving
Reported motion remains only partly explained; this is a principal reason for high-value unresolved status.
Radar / official check
not specified
Radar or hard maneuvering language is treated as a conflict/collection gap, not hand-waved away.
Analytic disposition
unresolved
237UAP00051 was screened against historical public LEO catalog objects orbital elements at the extracted time and observer coordinate. The screen did not produce enough mundane evidence to close the case under the normal-object favored standard. Hard features retained for follow-up: radar/primary evidence.
8. Caveats, Limitations, and Collection Gaps
No raw cockpit video, ATC replay, radar plot, or witness interview transcript was reviewed unless explicitly stated in the public source text.
Aviation-derived coordinates can represent a nearby fix/radial or report point, not necessarily the actual line-of-sight intercept point.
Starlink visibility depends on illumination, observer altitude, atmospheric conditions, and apparent brightness; this analysis tests geometry, not photometry. No brightness model is used unless explicitly stated elsewhere in the case file.
TLE propagation is appropriate for screening and reconstruction but is not a substitute for authoritative operational ephemerides.
When many satellites are above the horizon, generic presence is weak evidence and is not treated as causation. The report emphasizes named launch-object checks or compact same-launch trajectory groups.
This case is retained as high-value unresolved because the hardest reported behavior is not resolved by the current normal-object layers.
Appendix A. Public Report Text Extracts
237UAP00051
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT
PRIMARY CODE: UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL PHENOMENON
Date: 19:49 05/20/2021 Paged: NO
Status: Closed
POD: DEN
Reporting Facility: ZDC
REMARKS
Mode C intruder alert observed by controller moving slowly to the NW 50 SE of RIC @ FL400. 2 aircraft at FL390 were queried.
First aircraft reported an unidentified aerial phenomenon just above them at FL400 and second aircraft (some time later) saw
contrails above them at FL400. HQ DEN requested CONR to look at replay. CONR observed primary target off the HPW031 at
12 NM. The unknown phenomenon was traveling NW bound at approximately FL400. HQ DEN asked AMOC for replay and
negative results found. ZDC reported calls signs of two previous aircraft as SCX3036 and PPJ510.
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT | DATE: 2021-05-20T19:49 | POD: DEN | PAGE 1 of 1
Appendix B. Computational Evidence Digest
This appendix preserves the principal computed values used in the assessment, shortened to the fields most relevant to audit and review.
This checklist records which source layers were actually applied to this individual report. It separates checked evidence from unexhausted collection gaps so the disposition is auditable when the PDF is read alone.
Source Layer
Status
Case-Specific Note
NARA public UAP/FAA report
reviewed
Source IDs: 237UAP00051
Time and observer coordinate
extracted
2021-05-20T19:49:00+00:00 at 37.50015, -76.98615
Orbital object propagation
screened
public LEO catalog objects
Space-Track SATCAT metadata
screened
30 NORAD IDs checked; 30 matched in local SATCAT subset
Launch-object/SupGP layer
not applicable
not a launch-object case
NASA/JPL known small-body layer
screened
CAD/Horizons secondary screen included when this case had NEO-relevant timing/geometry
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI context
screened
Hourly weather, sky geometry, and space-weather context where local JSON is present
Aircraft/ADS-B layer
not exhausted
ADSB.lol historical release pattern is recorded separately; actual aircraft exhaustion requires targeted trace extraction
NOAA GOES imagery layer
not exhausted
Cloud/lightning imagery layer for the report hour
NOAA GOES ABI/GLM manifest
screened
Public S3 object listing for the report hour
NOAA/NEXRAD weather radar layer
not exhausted
Weather radar only; not ATC/primary radar
NOAA IGRA radiosonde layer
screened
Balloon drift plausibility layer
ASOS/METAR surface weather
screened
Nearest station visibility, cloud, wind, precipitation, and METAR observations
Weather/balloon source plan
planned
Nearest weather-airport, GOES, and radiosonde queries are listed where local plan JSON is present
Final analytic disposition
high-value unresolved
Presence-only satellite density is context only; a stronger case-specific fit is required for normal-object disposition
References and Source Links
National Archives and Records Administration. Records Related to Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) and Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs) at the National Archives.https://www.archives.gov/research/topics/uaps
National Archives Catalog. Records from the Federal Aviation Administration Relating to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena, National Archives Identifier 493468575.https://catalog.archives.gov/id/493468575
Space-Track.org. Public source for the underlying U.S. Space Surveillance Network TLE distribution referenced by the historical TLE archive.https://www.space-track.org/