PUBLIC RELEASE SOURCE REVIEW ยท INDEPENDENT ANALYTIC CASE FILE
CASE FILE 08 / 237UAP00343
237UAP00343
Radar/correlation-focused public UAP report; score 84
NORMAL-OBJECT FAVORED
Report No.
UAP-OM-08-237UAP00343
Disposition
NORMAL-OBJECT FAVORED
Primary Case
237UAP00343
Generated
2026-05-20 18:32 UTC
Report Time
2024-01-21T13:18:00+00:00
Observer
33.98769, -116.57204
Source Case IDs
237UAP00343
Abstract
This case file evaluates a reported UAP sighting against historical Starlink orbital elements. The primary external-object candidate is a 3-object same-launch group from 2021-05-09, spanning azimuth 14.05-30.36 deg and elevation 10.71-18.64 deg. The analysis distinguishes plausible geometric overlap from unresolved witness-language features.
This is a standalone independent analysis prepared from public-source records and public orbital datasets. It is not an official government determination, classification marking, or agency-authored report.
1. Executive Summary
237UAP00343 is assessed as normal-object favored because the available public evidence gives a case-specific ordinary-object candidate: strong ADS-B aircraft candidate N137FE B763 a095b4 at 17.9 km, azimuth 182.4 deg, elevation 30.7 deg, 5.26 min from report. Dense satellite presence alone is not treated as causation in this packet.
1.1 Key Findings
Source score 84 based on: radar/primary-return language, negative official correlation, high-altitude report, maneuvering/motion anomaly, UAP/UFO language.
Report time used: 2024-01-21T13:18:00+00:00.
External object layer used: Starlink.
Disposition standard: NORMAL-OBJECT requires case-specific causal fit. Satellite density above the horizon is context only and cannot by itself resolve the report.
Case-specific ordinary-object evidence: strong ADS-B aircraft candidate N137FE B763 a095b4 at 17.9 km, azimuth 182.4 deg, elevation 30.7 deg, 5.26 min from report.
Non-causal context / rejection screens: very dense orbital-object sky background; context only, not causation.
Objects above horizon: 265; at/above 10 deg: 119.
Top compact same-launch/designator group: 3 objects from 2021-05-09.
No explicit Starlink/balloon wording was found in the source excerpt used for ranking.
1.2 Bottom Line
NORMAL-OBJECT FAVORED: A case-specific ordinary-object candidate exists from source language, orbital geometry, launch-object context, or compact trajectory grouping. Dense ordinary sky traffic alone is not treated as causation.
2. Source Control
The source-control table identifies the public report records reviewed for this case and lists public access links where available. The table is included so this PDF remains interpretable when distributed by itself.
Aircraft reported an unidentified aerial phenomenon from the 12 o'clock position while SE bound climbing to FL410, 10NM NW of PSP. The unknown phenomenon was a bright light turning and then stationary at times significantly higher than the aircraft. No evasive maneuvers required. The UAP was not observed on ATC facility radar system.
Report time used
2024-01-21T13:18:00+00:00
Observer coordinate used
33.98769, -116.57204
Observer source basis
aviation_offset:10NM NW of PSP (public text extract 237UAP00343)
4. Methodology
Spacetime extraction. The report time and observer coordinate were extracted from the public text report and normalized to UTC. Aviation fixes/radials were resolved during earlier preprocessing where applicable.
External object dataset. The object layer used historical Space-Track/TLE-derived Starlink element rows. The analytic mode for this case is historical Starlink element propagation and same-launch/designator sky grouping.
Propagation. Orbital elements were propagated to the report minute and observer location. For launch-object checks, samples around the report minute were retained. For Starlink group checks, objects above the horizon were clustered by sky position and filtered for same-launch groupings.
Comparison. The output was compared against the report's count of lights, direction cue, motion language, altitude/radar language, and whether the file itself already suggested a satellite explanation.
Causation standard. Mere object presence above the horizon is treated as background context only. A normal-object disposition requires a case-specific causal fit, such as a named launch object, a compact same-launch trajectory group, or source language that directly supports that object class.
Disposition assignment.Identified means a specific normal object fits the report spacetime and the hard reported features do not materially conflict. Normal-object favored means a case-specific ordinary aerospace/orbital candidate exists, but it is not a full named identification. Insufficient means the file is too thin to carry high anomaly value. High-value unresolved is used when radar, video, rapid maneuver, or multi-witness features remain after reasonable normal-object checks.
5. External Object Evidence
5.1 Search Volume and Density
This table is a screening layer only. Objects above the horizon show background opportunity; they do not establish causation unless a specific object or compact trajectory group matches the reported behavior.
Starlink catalog IDs considered
5352
Historical element rows
5329
Above horizon at report minute
265
At/above 10 deg
119
Largest same-sky cluster
105
5.2 Same-Launch / Same-Designator Candidate Groups
#
Launch Date
Count
Azimuth Span
Elevation Span
Motion Labels
Members
1
2021-05-09
3
14.05-30.36 deg
10.71-18.64 deg
eastward, setting
STARLINK-2652, STARLINK-2640, STARLINK-2675
5.3 Primary Group Members
Object
NORAD
Launch
Az
El
Range km
Apparent Motion
Element Age h
STARLINK-2652
48451
2021-05-09
30.36
18.64
1349.49
eastward, setting
2.13
STARLINK-2640
48438
2021-05-09
16.78
18.54
1364.43
eastward, setting
5.3
STARLINK-2675
48470
2021-05-09
14.05
10.71
1770.58
eastward, setting
2.09
5.4 Bright-Sky Context: Top Starlink Objects by Elevation
Space-Track SATCAT metadata was pulled as a cached subset for NORAD catalog IDs appearing in this packet's evidence tables. This section adds owner/type/status context to the propagated object candidates.
Packet SATCAT subset rows
5370
Fetched
2026-05-19T01:19:50+00:00
This case NORAD IDs checked
33
SATCAT rows matched
33
Top owners
US: 33
Object types
PAYLOAD: 33
5.7 Space-Track Metadata for Top Propagated Objects
NORAD
Object Name
Type
Owner
Launch Date
Decay Date
58107
STARLINK-30421
PAYLOAD
US
2023-10-21
n/a
57412
STARLINK-30182
PAYLOAD
US
2023-07-20
n/a
58108
STARLINK-30611
PAYLOAD
US
2023-10-21
n/a
46564
STARLINK-1733
PAYLOAD
US
2020-10-06
n/a
46591
STARLINK-1755
PAYLOAD
US
2020-10-06
2025-02-23
53773
STARLINK-4718
PAYLOAD
US
2022-09-11
n/a
48108
STARLINK-2444
PAYLOAD
US
2021-04-07
2024-06-24
52674
STARLINK-3936
PAYLOAD
US
2022-05-18
n/a
52605
STARLINK-4000
PAYLOAD
US
2022-05-14
n/a
57733
STARLINK-30310
PAYLOAD
US
2023-09-01
n/a
53087
STARLINK-4329
PAYLOAD
US
2022-07-11
2025-09-01
57371
STARLINK-6032
PAYLOAD
US
2023-07-16
n/a
5.9 NASA / NOAA / ADS-B Expansion Layer
This source layer adds free NASA context that was previously missing from most packet cases. It is contextual evidence; it does not replace aircraft, satellite, balloon, or radar causation tests.
Requires targeted extraction from large daily history archives before claiming aircraft exhaustion.
NOAA GOES imagery
not yet exhausted
Needed for cloud/lightning visual context.
NOAA GOES ABI/GLM manifest
screened/present
Public S3 object availability for the report hour.
NOAA NEXRAD weather radar
not yet exhausted
Weather radar only; not ATC radar.
NOAA IGRA radiosonde
screened/present
Needed for balloon drift plausibility.
ASOS/METAR weather observations
screened/present
Nearest station surface observations around report time.
ADSB.lol historical: extract aircraft traces from adsblol/globe_history_2024 for 2024-01-21, then filter +/-60 min and 250 nmi around 33.9877,-116.5720.
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI: batch context for 237UAP00343 at 2024-01-21T13:18:00+00:00.
NOAA GOES: pull nearest ABI/GLM products for the UTC hour and render cloud/lightning map.
NOAA NEXRAD: select nearest radar stations and render Level-II/III weather radar sweep around event time.
NOAA IGRA: find nearest radiosonde station launches bracketing the event and model wind drift for balloon-like descriptions.
Space-Track gp_history/decay: fetch exact historical element rows and decay/reentry status for top candidate NORAD IDs.
5.12 Weather, Imagery, and Balloon Query Plan
This plan identifies the concrete free sources needed for the next case-specific weather and balloon checks. These are not treated as completed exclusions until the data are downloaded and plotted.
surface visibility ranged 8-10 statute miles; precipitation was reported in at least one observation; low/broken/overcast cloud layers were present in at least one observation. Surface ASOS/METAR observations describe airport-level weather and visibility; they do not by themselves prove conditions at the sighting altitude or line of sight.
Nearest sounding implies mean 0-12 km wind drift toward 212.9 deg at 17.73 m/s; a passive balloon could drift about 127.6 km in two hours under this crude layer-average model. Radiosonde winds are sparse station soundings; balloon drift remains approximate without launch time, ascent rate, object altitude, and exact line-of-sight bearing.
Station
Name
Distance km
Sounding UTC
Mean drift bearing
Mean speed m/s
2h drift km
Max wind
USM00072293
SAN DIEGO/MIRAMAR; NAS; CA.
138.00
2024-01-21T12:00:00+00:00
212.90
17.73
127.60
36.00 at 21947.00 m
5.17 NOAA GOES ABI/GLM Public File Manifest
GOES public S3 objects are listed for the report hour where available. This is an availability manifest, not yet a rendered satellite image.
This layer uses the downloaded ADSB.lol daily history archive to test actual aircraft tracks near the report coordinate and minute. It is not treated as a primary-radar substitute; it is a transponder/receiver-derived aircraft screen.
Archive window
2024-01-21T12:03:00+00:00 to 2024-01-21T14:33:00+00:00
Radius
300.00 nmi
Trace files scanned
38876
Tracks retained
381
Support status
aircraft strong candidate present
Best-candidate note
ordinary-object favored if the report's count, color, direction, and motion can be reconciled with the candidate track(s).
Strong candidates
7
Plausible candidates
34
Reporting-aircraft tracks excluded
1
Weak candidates
36
5.19 Top ADS-B Candidate Tracks
Aircraft
Status
Score
Min dist km
Nearest dt min
Alt ft
Az
El
N137FE B763 a095b4
strong aircraft candidate
84.56
17.60
0.04
28000
182.40
30.70
N34137 B752 a3c3e6
strong aircraft candidate
69.89
15.50
0.10
37000
267.90
16.22
N839SY B738 ab7b70
strong aircraft candidate
68.12
9.70
0.04
30000
69.10
12.49
N170FE B763 a119af
strong aircraft candidate
64.02
27.30
0.02
8325
187.70
14.81
N953WN B737 ad41cd
strong aircraft candidate
62.61
78.50
0.02
29250
312.00
8.00
N508AS B738 a657b9
strong aircraft candidate
61.37
45.20
0.05
15050
247.10
5.24
N37474 B739 a44611
strong aircraft candidate
58.28
78.50
0.02
21625
311.90
6.50
N411AJ LJ45 a4d7e0
reporting aircraft track; excluded from support counts
97.95
2.60
0.15
41000
359.80
78.46
6. Annotated Evidence Figure
Generated figure copied from the local evidence-plot output. It is included as an analytic visualization, not as original sensor imagery.
7. Analytic Comparison
Criterion
Report Evidence
Analytic Treatment
Time constraint
2024-01-21T13:18:00+00:00
Directly used in propagation; this is a hard filter, not descriptive context.
Location constraint
33.98769, -116.57204
Directly used as observer point for azimuth/elevation/range computation.
Count / pattern
two-object/light language present
Primary same-launch group contains 3 propagated objects in a compact sky sector.
Motion language
turning, stationary, climbing
Apparent motion labels in the object table provide a plausible but not definitive comparison.
Radar / official check
not observed on ATC radar
No ATC radar return can be consistent with distant orbital objects or visual aircraft-light hypotheses, but it does not prove the match.
Analytic disposition
normal-object
237UAP00343 is assessed as normal-object favored because the available public evidence gives a case-specific ordinary-object candidate: strong ADS-B aircraft candidate N137FE B763 a095b4 at 17.9 km, azimuth 182.4 deg, elevation 30.7 deg, 5.26 min from report. Dense satellite presence alone is not treated as causation in this packet.
8. Caveats, Limitations, and Collection Gaps
No raw cockpit video, ATC replay, radar plot, or witness interview transcript was reviewed unless explicitly stated in the public source text.
Aviation-derived coordinates can represent a nearby fix/radial or report point, not necessarily the actual line-of-sight intercept point.
Starlink visibility depends on illumination, observer altitude, atmospheric conditions, and apparent brightness; this analysis tests geometry, not photometry. No brightness model is used unless explicitly stated elsewhere in the case file.
TLE propagation is appropriate for screening and reconstruction but is not a substitute for authoritative operational ephemerides.
When many satellites are above the horizon, generic presence is weak evidence and is not treated as causation. The report emphasizes named launch-object checks or compact same-launch trajectory groups.
Normal-object favored is not the same as a perfect named-object identification; it requires a case-specific ordinary-object candidate stronger than simple object density.
Appendix A. Public Report Text Extracts
237UAP00343
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT
PRIMARY CODE: UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL PHENOMENON
Date: 13:18 01/21/2024 Callsign: XLJ411 Origin: VNY
Status: Closed Aircraft: LJ40 Destination: TUS
POD: DEN Tail Number: New Destination:
Reporting Facility: ZLA Operator: XLJ Operator Type: Commercial
Paged: YES MOR Init: YES
MOR ID: ZLA-M-2024/01/21-0001
REMARKS
Aircraft reported an unidentified aerial phenomenon from the 12 o'clock position while SE bound climbing to FL410, 10NM NW of
PSP. The unknown phenomenon was a bright light turning and then stationary at times significantly higher than the aircraft. No
evasive maneuvers required. The UAP was not observed on ATC facility radar system.
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT | DATE: 2024-01-21T13:18 | POD: DEN | PAGE 1 of 1
Appendix B. Computational Evidence Digest
This appendix preserves the principal computed values used in the assessment, shortened to the fields most relevant to audit and review.
This checklist records which source layers were actually applied to this individual report. It separates checked evidence from unexhausted collection gaps so the disposition is auditable when the PDF is read alone.
Source Layer
Status
Case-Specific Note
NARA public UAP/FAA report
reviewed
Source IDs: 237UAP00343
Time and observer coordinate
extracted
2024-01-21T13:18:00+00:00 at 33.98769, -116.57204
Orbital object propagation
screened
Starlink
Space-Track SATCAT metadata
screened
33 NORAD IDs checked; 33 matched in local SATCAT subset
Launch-object/SupGP layer
not applicable
not a launch-object case
NASA/JPL known small-body layer
not selected
CAD/Horizons secondary screen included when this case had NEO-relevant timing/geometry
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI context
screened
Hourly weather, sky geometry, and space-weather context where local JSON is present
Nearest station visibility, cloud, wind, precipitation, and METAR observations
Weather/balloon source plan
planned
Nearest weather-airport, GOES, and radiosonde queries are listed where local plan JSON is present
Final analytic disposition
normal-object favored
Presence-only satellite density is context only; a stronger case-specific fit is required for normal-object disposition
References and Source Links
National Archives and Records Administration. Records Related to Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) and Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs) at the National Archives.https://www.archives.gov/research/topics/uaps
National Archives Catalog. Records from the Federal Aviation Administration Relating to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena, National Archives Identifier 493468575.https://catalog.archives.gov/id/493468575
Space-Track.org. Public source for the underlying U.S. Space Surveillance Network TLE distribution referenced by the historical TLE archive.https://www.space-track.org/