237UAP00037

1. Executive Summary

237UAP00037 was screened against historical Starlink orbital elements at the extracted time and observer coordinate. The screen did not produce enough mundane evidence to close the case under the normal-object favored standard. Hard features retained for follow-up: radar/primary evidence.

1.1 Key Findings

• Source score 70 based on: radar/primary-return language, NORAD/AMOC/EADS/CONR check, high-altitude report, UAP/UFO language.
• Report time used: 2019-02-10T07:55:00+00:00.
• External object layer used: Starlink.
• Disposition standard: UNRESOLVED requires case-specific causal fit. Satellite density above the horizon is context only and cannot by itself resolve the report.
• Remaining hard features: radar/primary evidence.
• Objects above horizon: 0; at/above 10 deg: 0.
• No compact same-launch/designator group survived the report threshold.
• No explicit Starlink/balloon wording was found in the source excerpt used for ranking.

1.2 Bottom Line

HIGH-VALUE UNRESOLVED: Hard report features remain after the normal-object screens, such as primary/radar evidence, multiple witnesses, footage references, or motion language that still conflicts with the available object layer.

2. Source Control

The source-control table identifies the public report records reviewed for this case and lists public access links where available. The table is included so this PDF remains interpretable when distributed by itself.

3. Original Report Evidence

4. Methodology

1. Spacetime extraction. The report time and observer coordinate were extracted from the public text report and normalized to UTC. Aviation fixes/radials were resolved during earlier preprocessing where applicable.
2. External object dataset. The object layer used historical Space-Track/TLE-derived Starlink element rows. The analytic mode for this case is historical Starlink element propagation and same-launch/designator sky grouping.
3. Propagation. Orbital elements were propagated to the report minute and observer location. For launch-object checks, samples around the report minute were retained. For Starlink group checks, objects above the horizon were clustered by sky position and filtered for same-launch groupings.
4. Comparison. The output was compared against the report's count of lights, direction cue, motion language, altitude/radar language, and whether the file itself already suggested a satellite explanation.
5. Causation standard. Mere object presence above the horizon is treated as background context only. A normal-object disposition requires a case-specific causal fit, such as a named launch object, a compact same-launch trajectory group, or source language that directly supports that object class.
6. Disposition assignment. Identified means a specific normal object fits the report spacetime and the hard reported features do not materially conflict. Normal-object favored means a case-specific ordinary aerospace/orbital candidate exists, but it is not a full named identification. Insufficient means the file is too thin to carry high anomaly value. High-value unresolved is used when radar, video, rapid maneuver, or multi-witness features remain after reasonable normal-object checks.

5. External Object Evidence

5.1 Search Volume and Density

This table is a screening layer only. Objects above the horizon show background opportunity; they do not establish causation unless a specific object or compact trajectory group matches the reported behavior.

No compact same-launch/designator group survived the report threshold. In this condition, satellite density remains context only and cannot by itself resolve a report with hard features.

5.2 Same-Launch / Same-Designator Candidate Groups

5.3 Primary Group Members

5.4 Bright-Sky Context: Top Starlink Objects by Elevation

5.5 Largest Sky Clusters

5.6 Space-Track SATCAT Enrichment

Space-Track SATCAT metadata was pulled as a cached subset for NORAD catalog IDs appearing in this packet's evidence tables. This section adds owner/type/status context to the propagated object candidates.

5.7 Space-Track Metadata for Top Propagated Objects

5.9 NASA / NOAA / ADS-B Expansion Layer

This source layer adds free NASA context that was previously missing from most packet cases. It is contextual evidence; it does not replace aircraft, satellite, balloon, or radar causation tests.

5.10 Horizons Sky Geometry Context

• Sun elevation was -61.1 deg, so this was a dark-sky/nighttime sighting.
• Moon was below horizon at elevation -17.1 deg.
• No checked bright planets were above the horizon at the primary coordinate/time.
• NASA POWER cloud amount for the hour was 94.08%, with precipitation 1.84 mm/hr.

5.11 Free Source Availability and Remaining Work

• ADSB.lol historical: extract aircraft traces from no public ADSB.lol annual repo found for 2019-02-10, then filter +/-60 min and 250 nmi around 42.7833,-121.7000.
• NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI: batch context for 237UAP00037 at 2019-02-10T07:55:00+00:00.
• NOAA GOES: pull nearest ABI/GLM products for the UTC hour and render cloud/lightning map.
• NOAA NEXRAD: select nearest radar stations and render Level-II/III weather radar sweep around event time.
• NOAA IGRA: find nearest radiosonde station launches bracketing the event and model wind drift for balloon-like descriptions.
• Space-Track gp_history/decay: fetch exact historical element rows and decay/reentry status for top candidate NORAD IDs.

5.12 Weather, Imagery, and Balloon Query Plan

This plan identifies the concrete free sources needed for the next case-specific weather and balloon checks. These are not treated as completed exclusions until the data are downloaded and plotted.

5.13 Nearest Weather-Airport Candidates

• KLMT: IEM ASOS/METAR daily CSV query
• KMFR: IEM ASOS/METAR daily CSV query
• KRDM: IEM ASOS/METAR daily CSV query

5.14 Nearest Radiosonde Stations

5.15 ASOS/METAR Surface Weather Observations

surface visibility ranged 1.75-10 statute miles; precipitation was reported in at least one observation; low/broken/overcast cloud layers were present in at least one observation. Surface ASOS/METAR observations describe airport-level weather and visibility; they do not by themselves prove conditions at the sighting altitude or line of sight.

5.16 NOAA IGRA Radiosonde Wind Profile

Nearest sounding implies mean 0-12 km wind drift toward 159.9 deg at 16.34 m/s; a passive balloon could drift about 117.7 km in two hours under this crude layer-average model. Radiosonde winds are sparse station soundings; balloon drift remains approximate without launch time, ascent rate, object altitude, and exact line-of-sight bearing.

5.17 NOAA GOES ABI/GLM Public File Manifest

GOES public S3 objects are listed for the report hour where available. This is an availability manifest, not yet a rendered satellite image.

ABI sample objects:

• No ABI sample object listed for this hour/prefix.

GLM lightning sample objects:

• No GLM sample object listed for this hour/prefix.

6. Annotated Evidence Figure

7. Analytic Comparison

8. Caveats, Limitations, and Collection Gaps

• No raw cockpit video, ATC replay, radar plot, or witness interview transcript was reviewed unless explicitly stated in the public source text.
• Aviation-derived coordinates can represent a nearby fix/radial or report point, not necessarily the actual line-of-sight intercept point.
• Starlink visibility depends on illumination, observer altitude, atmospheric conditions, and apparent brightness; this analysis tests geometry, not photometry. No brightness model is used unless explicitly stated elsewhere in the case file.
• TLE propagation is appropriate for screening and reconstruction but is not a substitute for authoritative operational ephemerides.
• When many satellites are above the horizon, generic presence is weak evidence and is not treated as causation. The report emphasizes named launch-object checks or compact same-launch trajectory groups.
• This case is retained as high-value unresolved because the hardest reported behavior is not resolved by the current normal-object layers.