PUBLIC RELEASE SOURCE REVIEW ยท INDEPENDENT ANALYTIC CASE FILE
CASE FILE 15 / 237UAP00364
237UAP00364
Radar/correlation-focused public UAP report; score 70
HIGH-VALUE UNRESOLVED
Report No.
UAP-OM-15-237UAP00364
Disposition
HIGH-VALUE UNRESOLVED
Primary Case
237UAP00364
Generated
2026-05-20 18:32 UTC
Report Time
2024-03-16T06:16:00+00:00
Observer
30.42686, -95.89203
Source Case IDs
237UAP00364
Abstract
This case file evaluates a reported UAP sighting against historical Starlink orbital elements. The primary external-object candidate is a 3-object same-launch group from 2023-02-27, spanning azimuth 72.51-92.76 deg and elevation 21.45-36.71 deg. The analysis distinguishes plausible geometric overlap from unresolved witness-language features.
This is a standalone independent analysis prepared from public-source records and public orbital datasets. It is not an official government determination, classification marking, or agency-authored report.
1. Executive Summary
237UAP00364 remains high-value unresolved after screening against historical Starlink orbital elements. The strongest compact object grouping contains 3 objects from 2023-02-27; however, this does not close the case because hard report features remain: video/footage referenced. Context noted but not treated as causation: substantial orbital-object sky background; context only, not causation.
1.1 Key Findings
Source score 70 based on: radar/primary-return language, negative official correlation, high-altitude report, UAP/UFO language.
Report time used: 2024-03-16T06:16:00+00:00.
External object layer used: Starlink.
Disposition standard: UNRESOLVED requires case-specific causal fit. Satellite density above the horizon is context only and cannot by itself resolve the report.
Case-specific ordinary-object evidence: strong ADS-B aircraft candidate B-16722 B77W 8990e4 at 27.3 km, azimuth 76.6 deg, elevation 9.83 deg, 5.61 min from report.
Remaining hard features: video/footage referenced.
Objects above horizon: 256; at/above 10 deg: 108.
Top compact same-launch/designator group: 3 objects from 2023-02-27.
No explicit Starlink/balloon wording was found in the source excerpt used for ranking.
1.2 Bottom Line
HIGH-VALUE UNRESOLVED: Hard report features remain after the normal-object screens, such as primary/radar evidence, multiple witnesses, footage references, or motion language that still conflicts with the available object layer.
2. Source Control
The source-control table identifies the public report records reviewed for this case and lists public access links where available. The table is included so this PDF remains interpretable when distributed by itself.
Aircraft reported an unidentified aerial phenomenon off the front while W bound at FL410, 40NM NW of IAH. The unknown phenomenon was 3 bright lights coming together. The UAP was not observed on ATC facility radar systems. MOR will be filed. PIC has video of event.
Report time used
2024-03-16T06:16:00+00:00
Observer coordinate used
30.42686, -95.89203
Observer source basis
aviation_offset:40NM NW of IAH (public text extract 237UAP00364)
4. Methodology
Spacetime extraction. The report time and observer coordinate were extracted from the public text report and normalized to UTC. Aviation fixes/radials were resolved during earlier preprocessing where applicable.
External object dataset. The object layer used historical Space-Track/TLE-derived Starlink element rows. The analytic mode for this case is historical Starlink element propagation and same-launch/designator sky grouping.
Propagation. Orbital elements were propagated to the report minute and observer location. For launch-object checks, samples around the report minute were retained. For Starlink group checks, objects above the horizon were clustered by sky position and filtered for same-launch groupings.
Comparison. The output was compared against the report's count of lights, direction cue, motion language, altitude/radar language, and whether the file itself already suggested a satellite explanation.
Causation standard. Mere object presence above the horizon is treated as background context only. A normal-object disposition requires a case-specific causal fit, such as a named launch object, a compact same-launch trajectory group, or source language that directly supports that object class.
Disposition assignment.Identified means a specific normal object fits the report spacetime and the hard reported features do not materially conflict. Normal-object favored means a case-specific ordinary aerospace/orbital candidate exists, but it is not a full named identification. Insufficient means the file is too thin to carry high anomaly value. High-value unresolved is used when radar, video, rapid maneuver, or multi-witness features remain after reasonable normal-object checks.
5. External Object Evidence
5.1 Search Volume and Density
This table is a screening layer only. Objects above the horizon show background opportunity; they do not establish causation unless a specific object or compact trajectory group matches the reported behavior.
Starlink catalog IDs considered
5614
Historical element rows
5592
Above horizon at report minute
256
At/above 10 deg
108
Largest same-sky cluster
88
5.2 Same-Launch / Same-Designator Candidate Groups
#
Launch Date
Count
Azimuth Span
Elevation Span
Motion Labels
Members
1
2023-02-27
3
72.51-92.76 deg
21.45-36.71 deg
westward, setting
STARLINK-30047, STARLINK-30057, STARLINK-30063
5.3 Primary Group Members
Object
NORAD
Launch
Az
El
Range km
Apparent Motion
Element Age h
STARLINK-30047
55709
2023-02-27
92.76
36.71
571.0
westward, setting
8.95
STARLINK-30057
55705
2023-02-27
84.72
30.07
655.11
westward, setting
5.89
STARLINK-30063
55713
2023-02-27
72.51
21.45
845.22
westward, setting
1.74
5.4 Bright-Sky Context: Top Starlink Objects by Elevation
Space-Track SATCAT metadata was pulled as a cached subset for NORAD catalog IDs appearing in this packet's evidence tables. This section adds owner/type/status context to the propagated object candidates.
Packet SATCAT subset rows
5370
Fetched
2026-05-19T01:19:50+00:00
This case NORAD IDs checked
31
SATCAT rows matched
31
Top owners
US: 31
Object types
PAYLOAD: 31
5.7 Space-Track Metadata for Top Propagated Objects
NORAD
Object Name
Type
Owner
Launch Date
Decay Date
56122
STARLINK-6094
PAYLOAD
US
2023-03-29
n/a
47548
STARLINK-1782
PAYLOAD
US
2021-02-04
2025-02-05
49768
STARLINK-3196
PAYLOAD
US
2021-12-02
n/a
49769
STARLINK-3208
PAYLOAD
US
2021-12-02
n/a
45223
STARLINK-1212
PAYLOAD
US
2020-02-17
n/a
52580
STARLINK-3919
PAYLOAD
US
2022-05-13
n/a
58596
STARLINK-31059
PAYLOAD
US
2023-12-19
n/a
58010
STARLINK-30520
PAYLOAD
US
2023-10-05
n/a
52685
STARLINK-4029
PAYLOAD
US
2022-05-18
n/a
57753
STARLINK-30343
PAYLOAD
US
2023-09-01
n/a
56793
STARLINK-6052
PAYLOAD
US
2023-05-31
n/a
54181
STARLINK-5227
PAYLOAD
US
2022-10-28
n/a
5.9 NASA / NOAA / ADS-B Expansion Layer
This source layer adds free NASA context that was previously missing from most packet cases. It is contextual evidence; it does not replace aircraft, satellite, balloon, or radar causation tests.
Requires targeted extraction from large daily history archives before claiming aircraft exhaustion.
NOAA GOES imagery
not yet exhausted
Needed for cloud/lightning visual context.
NOAA GOES ABI/GLM manifest
screened/present
Public S3 object availability for the report hour.
NOAA NEXRAD weather radar
not yet exhausted
Weather radar only; not ATC radar.
NOAA IGRA radiosonde
screened/present
Needed for balloon drift plausibility.
ASOS/METAR weather observations
screened/present
Nearest station surface observations around report time.
ADSB.lol historical: extract aircraft traces from adsblol/globe_history_2024 for 2024-03-16, then filter +/-60 min and 250 nmi around 30.4269,-95.8920.
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI: batch context for 237UAP00364 at 2024-03-16T06:16:00+00:00.
NOAA GOES: pull nearest ABI/GLM products for the UTC hour and render cloud/lightning map.
NOAA NEXRAD: select nearest radar stations and render Level-II/III weather radar sweep around event time.
NOAA IGRA: find nearest radiosonde station launches bracketing the event and model wind drift for balloon-like descriptions.
Space-Track gp_history/decay: fetch exact historical element rows and decay/reentry status for top candidate NORAD IDs.
5.12 Weather, Imagery, and Balloon Query Plan
This plan identifies the concrete free sources needed for the next case-specific weather and balloon checks. These are not treated as completed exclusions until the data are downloaded and plotted.
surface visibility ranged 10-10 statute miles; no precipitation was reported in the retained observations; low/broken/overcast cloud layers were present in at least one observation. Surface ASOS/METAR observations describe airport-level weather and visibility; they do not by themselves prove conditions at the sighting altitude or line of sight.
Nearest sounding implies mean 0-12 km wind drift toward 226.1 deg at 22.64 m/s; a passive balloon could drift about 163.0 km in two hours under this crude layer-average model. Radiosonde winds are sparse station soundings; balloon drift remains approximate without launch time, ascent rate, object altitude, and exact line-of-sight bearing.
Station
Name
Distance km
Sounding UTC
Mean drift bearing
Mean speed m/s
2h drift km
Max wind
USM00072240
LAKE CHARLES/MUN.; LA.
259.10
2024-03-16T12:00:00+00:00
226.10
22.64
163.00
34.00 at 20724.00 m
5.17 NOAA GOES ABI/GLM Public File Manifest
GOES public S3 objects are listed for the report hour where available. This is an availability manifest, not yet a rendered satellite image.
This layer uses the downloaded ADSB.lol daily history archive to test actual aircraft tracks near the report coordinate and minute. It is not treated as a primary-radar substitute; it is a transponder/receiver-derived aircraft screen.
Archive window
2024-03-16T05:16:00+00:00 to 2024-03-16T07:16:00+00:00
Radius
250.00 nmi
Trace files scanned
52336
Tracks retained
191
Support status
aircraft strong candidate present
Best-candidate note
ordinary-object favored if the report's count, color, direction, and motion can be reconciled with the candidate track(s).
Strong candidates
5
Plausible candidates
23
Reporting-aircraft tracks excluded
0
Weak candidates
33
5.19 Top ADS-B Candidate Tracks
Aircraft
Status
Score
Min dist km
Nearest dt min
Alt ft
Az
El
B-16722 B77W 8990e4
strong aircraft candidate
66.64
26.10
0.04
4475
76.60
9.83
N448WN B737 a56a56
strong aircraft candidate
64.71
60.70
0.07
38000
236.30
7.18
N710NK A21N a97d43
strong aircraft candidate
55.98
1.40
4.72
1575
137.30
0.15
N38459 B739 a46d4f
strong aircraft candidate
55.72
49.00
3.11
2675
137.70
0.28
N206WN B737 a1aa4e
strong aircraft candidate
51.80
35.20
0.04
1475
170.50
1.89
N350DN A321 a3e525
plausible aircraft candidate
71.56
8.80
0.12
29975
109.40
33.22
N5280F H500 a6a904
plausible aircraft candidate
57.66
72.90
0.28
1300
145.70
-0.13
XA-KID LJ35 0d0e2f
plausible aircraft candidate
53.32
80.60
0.06
39025
101.70
6.76
6. Annotated Evidence Figure
Generated figure copied from the local evidence-plot output. It is included as an analytic visualization, not as original sensor imagery.
7. Analytic Comparison
Criterion
Report Evidence
Analytic Treatment
Time constraint
2024-03-16T06:16:00+00:00
Directly used in propagation; this is a hard filter, not descriptive context.
Location constraint
30.42686, -95.89203
Directly used as observer point for azimuth/elevation/range computation.
Count / pattern
three-object/light language present
Primary same-launch group contains 3 propagated objects in a compact sky sector.
Motion language
not explicit
Reported motion remains only partly explained; this is a principal reason for high-value unresolved status.
Radar / official check
not observed on ATC radar
Radar or hard maneuvering language is treated as a conflict/collection gap, not hand-waved away.
Analytic disposition
unresolved
237UAP00364 remains high-value unresolved after screening against historical Starlink orbital elements. The strongest compact object grouping contains 3 objects from 2023-02-27; however, this does not close the case because hard report features remain: video/footage referenced. Context noted but not treated as causation: substantial orbital-object sky background; context only, not causation.
8. Caveats, Limitations, and Collection Gaps
No raw cockpit video, ATC replay, radar plot, or witness interview transcript was reviewed unless explicitly stated in the public source text.
Aviation-derived coordinates can represent a nearby fix/radial or report point, not necessarily the actual line-of-sight intercept point.
Starlink visibility depends on illumination, observer altitude, atmospheric conditions, and apparent brightness; this analysis tests geometry, not photometry. No brightness model is used unless explicitly stated elsewhere in the case file.
TLE propagation is appropriate for screening and reconstruction but is not a substitute for authoritative operational ephemerides.
When many satellites are above the horizon, generic presence is weak evidence and is not treated as causation. The report emphasizes named launch-object checks or compact same-launch trajectory groups.
This case is retained as high-value unresolved because the hardest reported behavior is not resolved by the current normal-object layers.
Appendix A. Public Report Text Extracts
237UAP00364
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT
PRIMARY CODE: UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL PHENOMENON
Date: 06:16 03/16/2024 Callsign: N473KW Origin: SEF
Status: Closed Aircraft: E35L Destination: TRM
POD: DEN Tail Number: New Destination:
Reporting Facility: ZHU Operator: Operator Type: General Aviation
Paged: NO
REMARKS
Aircraft reported an unidentified aerial phenomenon off the front while W bound at FL410, 40NM NW of IAH. The unknown
phenomenon was 3 bright lights coming together. The UAP was not observed on ATC facility radar systems. MOR will be filed.
PIC has video of event.
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT | DATE: 2024-03-16T06:16 | POD: DEN | PAGE 1 of 1
Appendix B. Computational Evidence Digest
This appendix preserves the principal computed values used in the assessment, shortened to the fields most relevant to audit and review.
This checklist records which source layers were actually applied to this individual report. It separates checked evidence from unexhausted collection gaps so the disposition is auditable when the PDF is read alone.
Source Layer
Status
Case-Specific Note
NARA public UAP/FAA report
reviewed
Source IDs: 237UAP00364
Time and observer coordinate
extracted
2024-03-16T06:16:00+00:00 at 30.42686, -95.89203
Orbital object propagation
screened
Starlink
Space-Track SATCAT metadata
screened
31 NORAD IDs checked; 31 matched in local SATCAT subset
Launch-object/SupGP layer
not applicable
not a launch-object case
NASA/JPL known small-body layer
not selected
CAD/Horizons secondary screen included when this case had NEO-relevant timing/geometry
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI context
screened
Hourly weather, sky geometry, and space-weather context where local JSON is present
Nearest station visibility, cloud, wind, precipitation, and METAR observations
Weather/balloon source plan
planned
Nearest weather-airport, GOES, and radiosonde queries are listed where local plan JSON is present
Final analytic disposition
high-value unresolved
Presence-only satellite density is context only; a stronger case-specific fit is required for normal-object disposition
References and Source Links
National Archives and Records Administration. Records Related to Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) and Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs) at the National Archives.https://www.archives.gov/research/topics/uaps
National Archives Catalog. Records from the Federal Aviation Administration Relating to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena, National Archives Identifier 493468575.https://catalog.archives.gov/id/493468575
Space-Track.org. Public source for the underlying U.S. Space Surveillance Network TLE distribution referenced by the historical TLE archive.https://www.space-track.org/