PUBLIC RELEASE SOURCE REVIEW ยท INDEPENDENT ANALYTIC CASE FILE
CASE FILE 33 / 237UAP00049
237UAP00049
High-altitude public UAP report; score 60
HIGH-VALUE UNRESOLVED
Report No.
UAP-OM-33-237UAP00049
Disposition
HIGH-VALUE UNRESOLVED
Primary Case
237UAP00049
Generated
2026-05-20 18:32 UTC
Report Time
2021-04-26T05:45:00+00:00
Observer
36.36438, -81.31332
Source Case IDs
237UAP00049
Abstract
This case file evaluates a reported UAP sighting against the available orbital-object layer. No compact same-launch group fully identifies the file by itself. The final disposition is assigned under a normal-object favored standard, where ordinary aerospace/orbital explanations are preferred when they reasonably fit the report.
This is a standalone independent analysis prepared from public-source records and public orbital datasets. It is not an official government determination, classification marking, or agency-authored report.
1. Executive Summary
237UAP00049 was screened against historical Starlink orbital elements at the extracted time and observer coordinate. The screen did not produce enough mundane evidence to close the case under the normal-object favored standard. Hard features retained for follow-up: multiple witnesses/facilities, hard maneuver language.
1.1 Key Findings
Source score 60 based on: multiple aircraft/facility witnesses, high-altitude report, maneuvering/motion anomaly, UAP/UFO language.
Report time used: 2021-04-26T05:45:00+00:00.
External object layer used: Starlink.
Disposition standard: UNRESOLVED requires case-specific causal fit. Satellite density above the horizon is context only and cannot by itself resolve the report.
Remaining hard features: multiple witnesses/facilities; hard maneuver language.
Objects above horizon: 46; at/above 10 deg: 17.
No compact same-launch/designator group survived the report threshold.
No explicit Starlink/balloon wording was found in the source excerpt used for ranking.
1.2 Bottom Line
HIGH-VALUE UNRESOLVED: Hard report features remain after the normal-object screens, such as primary/radar evidence, multiple witnesses, footage references, or motion language that still conflicts with the available object layer.
2. Source Control
The source-control table identifies the public report records reviewed for this case and lists public access links where available. The table is included so this PDF remains interpretable when distributed by itself.
PIC of N39RC and JBU1380 reported a UFO described as a white, rapidly circling light at approximately FL450 in the vicinity of IAD231240 out of the right side of the ACFTs. Both pilots reported it was short in duration and disappeared at the same time. AWO/JH notified.
Report time used
2021-04-26T05:45:00+00:00
Observer coordinate used
36.36438, -81.31332
Observer source basis
aviation_radial:IAD231240 (public text extract 237UAP00049)
4. Methodology
Spacetime extraction. The report time and observer coordinate were extracted from the public text report and normalized to UTC. Aviation fixes/radials were resolved during earlier preprocessing where applicable.
External object dataset. The object layer used historical Space-Track/TLE-derived Starlink element rows. The analytic mode for this case is historical Starlink element propagation and same-launch/designator sky grouping.
Propagation. Orbital elements were propagated to the report minute and observer location. For launch-object checks, samples around the report minute were retained. For Starlink group checks, objects above the horizon were clustered by sky position and filtered for same-launch groupings.
Comparison. The output was compared against the report's count of lights, direction cue, motion language, altitude/radar language, and whether the file itself already suggested a satellite explanation.
Causation standard. Mere object presence above the horizon is treated as background context only. A normal-object disposition requires a case-specific causal fit, such as a named launch object, a compact same-launch trajectory group, or source language that directly supports that object class.
Disposition assignment.Identified means a specific normal object fits the report spacetime and the hard reported features do not materially conflict. Normal-object favored means a case-specific ordinary aerospace/orbital candidate exists, but it is not a full named identification. Insufficient means the file is too thin to carry high anomaly value. High-value unresolved is used when radar, video, rapid maneuver, or multi-witness features remain after reasonable normal-object checks.
5. External Object Evidence
5.1 Search Volume and Density
This table is a screening layer only. Objects above the horizon show background opportunity; they do not establish causation unless a specific object or compact trajectory group matches the reported behavior.
Starlink catalog IDs considered
1373
Historical element rows
1373
Above horizon at report minute
46
At/above 10 deg
17
Largest same-sky cluster
2
No compact same-launch/designator group survived the report threshold. In this condition, satellite density remains context only and cannot by itself resolve a report with hard features.
5.2 Same-Launch / Same-Designator Candidate Groups
#
Launch Date
Count
Azimuth Span
Elevation Span
Motion Labels
Members
No same-launch group identified.
5.3 Primary Group Members
Object
NORAD
Launch
Az
El
Range km
Apparent Motion
Element Age h
No members available.
5.4 Bright-Sky Context: Top Starlink Objects by Elevation
Object
Az
El
Range km
Apparent Motion
Launch Date
STARLINK-1217
276.75
63.89
606.53
westward, setting
2020-02-17
STARLINK-1514
266.27
40.39
806.29
eastward, rising
2020-08-07
STARLINK-1544
65.02
29.43
1006.34
westward, setting
2020-08-07
STARLINK-1232
38.04
25.02
1124.91
eastward, setting
2020-02-17
STARLINK-1377
357.34
24.43
1143.45
eastward, setting
2020-04-22
STARLINK-1675
113.49
24.18
1146.9
westward, setting
2020-10-06
STARLINK-1309
147.74
24.0
1151.28
westward, setting
2020-03-18
STARLINK-1725
274.46
19.93
1296.04
westward, rising
2020-09-03
STARLINK-1719
104.88
19.81
1300.68
eastward, setting
2020-09-03
STARLINK-1764
181.38
19.04
1327.69
westward, setting
2020-09-03
STARLINK-1762
327.2
17.21
1414.85
eastward, rising
2020-09-03
STARLINK-1565
215.33
12.65
1641.5
westward, rising
2020-08-07
5.5 Largest Sky Clusters
#
Count
Azimuth Span
Elevation Span
Motion Labels
1
2
104.88-113.49 deg
19.81-24.18 deg
eastward, setting, westward, setting
2
2
354.3-357.34 deg
12.2-24.43 deg
eastward, rising, eastward, setting
3
2
327.2-339.87 deg
11.15-17.21 deg
eastward, rising, eastward, setting
4
2
289.27-299.68 deg
11.24-11.8 deg
eastward, rising, westward, rising
5
1
276.75-276.75 deg
63.89-63.89 deg
westward, setting
5.6 Space-Track SATCAT Enrichment
Space-Track SATCAT metadata was pulled as a cached subset for NORAD catalog IDs appearing in this packet's evidence tables. This section adds owner/type/status context to the propagated object candidates.
Packet SATCAT subset rows
5370
Fetched
2026-05-19T01:19:50+00:00
This case NORAD IDs checked
30
SATCAT rows matched
30
Top owners
US: 30
Object types
PAYLOAD: 30
5.7 Space-Track Metadata for Top Propagated Objects
NORAD
Object Name
Type
Owner
Launch Date
Decay Date
45226
STARLINK-1217
PAYLOAD
US
2020-02-17
2025-10-20
46046
STARLINK-1514
PAYLOAD
US
2020-08-07
2022-07-17
46031
STARLINK-1544
PAYLOAD
US
2020-08-07
2024-12-27
45213
STARLINK-1232
PAYLOAD
US
2020-02-17
2023-12-13
45547
STARLINK-1377
PAYLOAD
US
2020-04-22
2024-09-08
46575
STARLINK-1675
PAYLOAD
US
2020-10-06
2025-11-27
45414
STARLINK-1309
PAYLOAD
US
2020-03-18
n/a
46334
STARLINK-1725
PAYLOAD
US
2020-09-03
2025-02-13
46331
STARLINK-1719
PAYLOAD
US
2020-09-03
n/a
46343
STARLINK-1764
PAYLOAD
US
2020-09-03
n/a
46342
STARLINK-1762
PAYLOAD
US
2020-09-03
n/a
46037
STARLINK-1565
PAYLOAD
US
2020-08-07
2025-04-30
5.9 NASA / NOAA / ADS-B Expansion Layer
This source layer adds free NASA context that was previously missing from most packet cases. It is contextual evidence; it does not replace aircraft, satellite, balloon, or radar causation tests.
Requires targeted extraction from large daily history archives before claiming aircraft exhaustion.
NOAA GOES imagery
not yet exhausted
Needed for cloud/lightning visual context.
NOAA GOES ABI/GLM manifest
screened/present
Public S3 object availability for the report hour.
NOAA NEXRAD weather radar
not yet exhausted
Weather radar only; not ATC radar.
NOAA IGRA radiosonde
screened/present
Needed for balloon drift plausibility.
ASOS/METAR weather observations
screened/present
Nearest station surface observations around report time.
ADSB.lol historical: extract aircraft traces from no public ADSB.lol annual repo found for 2021-04-26, then filter +/-60 min and 250 nmi around 36.3644,-81.3133.
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI: batch context for 237UAP00049 at 2021-04-26T05:45:00+00:00.
NOAA GOES: pull nearest ABI/GLM products for the UTC hour and render cloud/lightning map.
NOAA NEXRAD: select nearest radar stations and render Level-II/III weather radar sweep around event time.
NOAA IGRA: find nearest radiosonde station launches bracketing the event and model wind drift for balloon-like descriptions.
Space-Track gp_history/decay: fetch exact historical element rows and decay/reentry status for top candidate NORAD IDs.
5.12 Weather, Imagery, and Balloon Query Plan
This plan identifies the concrete free sources needed for the next case-specific weather and balloon checks. These are not treated as completed exclusions until the data are downloaded and plotted.
surface visibility ranged 8-10 statute miles; no precipitation was reported in the retained observations; no low broken/overcast cloud ceiling was evident in the retained station observations. Surface ASOS/METAR observations describe airport-level weather and visibility; they do not by themselves prove conditions at the sighting altitude or line of sight.
Nearest sounding implies mean 0-12 km wind drift toward 270.8 deg at 15.11 m/s; a passive balloon could drift about 108.8 km in two hours under this crude layer-average model. Radiosonde winds are sparse station soundings; balloon drift remains approximate without launch time, ascent rate, object altitude, and exact line-of-sight bearing.
Station
Name
Distance km
Sounding UTC
Mean drift bearing
Mean speed m/s
2h drift km
Max wind
USM00072318
BLACKSBURG; VA.
123.00
2021-04-26T00:00:00+00:00
270.80
15.11
108.80
34.80 at 21249.00 m
5.17 NOAA GOES ABI/GLM Public File Manifest
GOES public S3 objects are listed for the report hour where available. This is an availability manifest, not yet a rendered satellite image.
Generated figure copied from the local evidence-plot output. It is included as an analytic visualization, not as original sensor imagery.
7. Analytic Comparison
Criterion
Report Evidence
Analytic Treatment
Time constraint
2021-04-26T05:45:00+00:00
Directly used in propagation; this is a hard filter, not descriptive context.
Location constraint
36.36438, -81.31332
Directly used as observer point for azimuth/elevation/range computation.
Count / pattern
not explicit
No compact same-launch count match; retained for unresolved report features.
Motion language
circling, disappear
Reported motion remains only partly explained; this is a principal reason for high-value unresolved status.
Radar / official check
not specified
Radar or hard maneuvering language is treated as a conflict/collection gap, not hand-waved away.
Analytic disposition
unresolved
237UAP00049 was screened against historical Starlink orbital elements at the extracted time and observer coordinate. The screen did not produce enough mundane evidence to close the case under the normal-object favored standard. Hard features retained for follow-up: multiple witnesses/facilities, hard maneuver language.
8. Caveats, Limitations, and Collection Gaps
No raw cockpit video, ATC replay, radar plot, or witness interview transcript was reviewed unless explicitly stated in the public source text.
Aviation-derived coordinates can represent a nearby fix/radial or report point, not necessarily the actual line-of-sight intercept point.
Starlink visibility depends on illumination, observer altitude, atmospheric conditions, and apparent brightness; this analysis tests geometry, not photometry. No brightness model is used unless explicitly stated elsewhere in the case file.
TLE propagation is appropriate for screening and reconstruction but is not a substitute for authoritative operational ephemerides.
When many satellites are above the horizon, generic presence is weak evidence and is not treated as causation. The report emphasizes named launch-object checks or compact same-launch trajectory groups.
This case is retained as high-value unresolved because the hardest reported behavior is not resolved by the current normal-object layers.
Appendix A. Public Report Text Extracts
237UAP00049
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT
PRIMARY CODE: OTHER
Date: 05:45 04/26/2021 Callsign: N39RC Origin: PBI
Status: Closed Aircraft: C560 Destination: ABE
POD: DEN Tail Number: New Destination:
Reporting Facility: ZDC Operator: Operator Type: General Aviation
Paged: YES MOR Init: YES
MOR ID: ZDC-M-2021/04/26-0001
REMARKS
PIC of N39RC and JBU1380 reported a UFO described as a white, rapidly circling light at approximately FL450 in the vicinity of
IAD231240 out of the right side of the ACFTs. Both pilots reported it was short in duration and disappeared at the same time.
AWO/JH notified.
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT | DATE: 2021-04-26T05:45 | POD: DEN | PAGE 1 of 1
Appendix B. Computational Evidence Digest
This appendix preserves the principal computed values used in the assessment, shortened to the fields most relevant to audit and review.
This checklist records which source layers were actually applied to this individual report. It separates checked evidence from unexhausted collection gaps so the disposition is auditable when the PDF is read alone.
Source Layer
Status
Case-Specific Note
NARA public UAP/FAA report
reviewed
Source IDs: 237UAP00049
Time and observer coordinate
extracted
2021-04-26T05:45:00+00:00 at 36.36438, -81.31332
Orbital object propagation
screened
Starlink
Space-Track SATCAT metadata
screened
30 NORAD IDs checked; 30 matched in local SATCAT subset
Launch-object/SupGP layer
not applicable
not a launch-object case
NASA/JPL known small-body layer
not selected
CAD/Horizons secondary screen included when this case had NEO-relevant timing/geometry
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI context
screened
Hourly weather, sky geometry, and space-weather context where local JSON is present
Aircraft/ADS-B layer
not exhausted
ADSB.lol historical release pattern is recorded separately; actual aircraft exhaustion requires targeted trace extraction
NOAA GOES imagery layer
not exhausted
Cloud/lightning imagery layer for the report hour
NOAA GOES ABI/GLM manifest
screened
Public S3 object listing for the report hour
NOAA/NEXRAD weather radar layer
not exhausted
Weather radar only; not ATC/primary radar
NOAA IGRA radiosonde layer
screened
Balloon drift plausibility layer
ASOS/METAR surface weather
screened
Nearest station visibility, cloud, wind, precipitation, and METAR observations
Weather/balloon source plan
planned
Nearest weather-airport, GOES, and radiosonde queries are listed where local plan JSON is present
Final analytic disposition
high-value unresolved
Presence-only satellite density is context only; a stronger case-specific fit is required for normal-object disposition
References and Source Links
National Archives and Records Administration. Records Related to Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) and Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs) at the National Archives.https://www.archives.gov/research/topics/uaps
National Archives Catalog. Records from the Federal Aviation Administration Relating to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena, National Archives Identifier 493468575.https://catalog.archives.gov/id/493468575
Space-Track.org. Public source for the underlying U.S. Space Surveillance Network TLE distribution referenced by the historical TLE archive.https://www.space-track.org/