PUBLIC RELEASE SOURCE REVIEW ยท INDEPENDENT ANALYTIC CASE FILE
CASE FILE 37 / 237UAP00318
237UAP00318
Radar/correlation-focused public UAP report; score 58
NORMAL-OBJECT FAVORED
Report No.
UAP-OM-37-237UAP00318
Disposition
NORMAL-OBJECT FAVORED
Primary Case
237UAP00318
Generated
2026-05-20 18:32 UTC
Report Time
2023-11-19T22:50:00+00:00
Observer
28.80250, -83.30554
Source Case IDs
237UAP00318
Abstract
This case file evaluates a reported UAP sighting against the available orbital-object layer. No compact same-launch group fully identifies the file by itself. The final disposition is assigned under a normal-object favored standard, where ordinary aerospace/orbital explanations are preferred when they reasonably fit the report.
This is a standalone independent analysis prepared from public-source records and public orbital datasets. It is not an official government determination, classification marking, or agency-authored report.
1. Executive Summary
237UAP00318 is assessed as normal-object favored because the available public evidence gives a case-specific ordinary-object candidate: strong ADS-B aircraft candidate C-FPRP B738 c02966 at 14.9 km, azimuth 268.1 deg, elevation 35.41 deg, 2.52 min from report. Dense satellite presence alone is not treated as causation in this packet.
1.1 Key Findings
Source score 58 based on: radar/primary-return language, multiple aircraft/facility witnesses, UAP/UFO language.
Report time used: 2023-11-19T22:50:00+00:00.
External object layer used: Starlink.
Disposition standard: NORMAL-OBJECT requires case-specific causal fit. Satellite density above the horizon is context only and cannot by itself resolve the report.
Case-specific ordinary-object evidence: strong ADS-B aircraft candidate C-FPRP B738 c02966 at 14.9 km, azimuth 268.1 deg, elevation 35.41 deg, 2.52 min from report.
Remaining hard features: multiple witnesses/facilities.
Objects above horizon: 230; at/above 10 deg: 95.
No compact same-launch/designator group survived the report threshold.
No explicit Starlink/balloon wording was found in the source excerpt used for ranking.
1.2 Bottom Line
NORMAL-OBJECT FAVORED: A case-specific ordinary-object candidate exists from source language, orbital geometry, launch-object context, or compact trajectory grouping. Dense ordinary sky traffic alone is not treated as causation.
2. Source Control
The source-control table identifies the public report records reviewed for this case and lists public access links where available. The table is included so this PDF remains interpretable when distributed by itself.
Multiple aircraft reported an unidentified aerial phenomenon off in the vicinity of LAL306084, NW of TPA. The unknown phenomenon was described as an object the size of an aircraft at approximately FL250 to FL310. The UAP was not observed on ATC facility radar system. This incident was initially reported by 5 aircraft observing the same white object. No evasive maneuvers reported, no impact to operations.
Report time used
2023-11-19T22:50:00+00:00
Observer coordinate used
28.80250, -83.30554
Observer source basis
aviation_radial:LAL306084 (public text extract 237UAP00318)
4. Methodology
Spacetime extraction. The report time and observer coordinate were extracted from the public text report and normalized to UTC. Aviation fixes/radials were resolved during earlier preprocessing where applicable.
External object dataset. The object layer used historical Space-Track/TLE-derived Starlink element rows. The analytic mode for this case is historical Starlink element propagation and same-launch/designator sky grouping.
Propagation. Orbital elements were propagated to the report minute and observer location. For launch-object checks, samples around the report minute were retained. For Starlink group checks, objects above the horizon were clustered by sky position and filtered for same-launch groupings.
Comparison. The output was compared against the report's count of lights, direction cue, motion language, altitude/radar language, and whether the file itself already suggested a satellite explanation.
Causation standard. Mere object presence above the horizon is treated as background context only. A normal-object disposition requires a case-specific causal fit, such as a named launch object, a compact same-launch trajectory group, or source language that directly supports that object class.
Disposition assignment.Identified means a specific normal object fits the report spacetime and the hard reported features do not materially conflict. Normal-object favored means a case-specific ordinary aerospace/orbital candidate exists, but it is not a full named identification. Insufficient means the file is too thin to carry high anomaly value. High-value unresolved is used when radar, video, rapid maneuver, or multi-witness features remain after reasonable normal-object checks.
5. External Object Evidence
5.1 Search Volume and Density
This table is a screening layer only. Objects above the horizon show background opportunity; they do not establish causation unless a specific object or compact trajectory group matches the reported behavior.
Starlink catalog IDs considered
5076
Historical element rows
5052
Above horizon at report minute
230
At/above 10 deg
95
Largest same-sky cluster
53
No compact same-launch/designator group survived the report threshold. In this condition, satellite density remains context only and cannot by itself resolve a report with hard features.
5.2 Same-Launch / Same-Designator Candidate Groups
#
Launch Date
Count
Azimuth Span
Elevation Span
Motion Labels
Members
No same-launch group identified.
5.3 Primary Group Members
Object
NORAD
Launch
Az
El
Range km
Apparent Motion
Element Age h
No members available.
5.4 Bright-Sky Context: Top Starlink Objects by Elevation
Space-Track SATCAT metadata was pulled as a cached subset for NORAD catalog IDs appearing in this packet's evidence tables. This section adds owner/type/status context to the propagated object candidates.
Packet SATCAT subset rows
5370
Fetched
2026-05-19T01:19:50+00:00
This case NORAD IDs checked
30
SATCAT rows matched
30
Top owners
US: 30
Object types
PAYLOAD: 30
5.7 Space-Track Metadata for Top Propagated Objects
NORAD
Object Name
Type
Owner
Launch Date
Decay Date
56347
STARLINK-5829
PAYLOAD
US
2023-04-27
n/a
56800
STARLINK-6036
PAYLOAD
US
2023-05-31
n/a
52559
STARLINK-3953
PAYLOAD
US
2022-05-13
n/a
56791
STARLINK-5977
PAYLOAD
US
2023-05-31
n/a
48380
STARLINK-2614
PAYLOAD
US
2021-05-04
n/a
53402
STARLINK-4499
PAYLOAD
US
2022-08-10
n/a
48599
STARLINK-2274
PAYLOAD
US
2021-05-15
2024-05-14
54051
STARLINK-5195
PAYLOAD
US
2022-10-20
n/a
55640
STARLINK-5069
PAYLOAD
US
2023-02-17
n/a
57865
STARLINK-30427
PAYLOAD
US
2023-09-16
n/a
48674
STARLINK-2712
PAYLOAD
US
2021-05-26
n/a
56032
STARLINK-5786
PAYLOAD
US
2023-03-24
n/a
5.6 NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Screen
This secondary object screen checks NASA/JPL close-approach objects near the report date and propagates their observer geometry through Horizons at the report coordinate. It is a known-object rejection layer, not a generic astronomy backdrop.
NASA/JPL CAD window
event date +/- 1 day, dist-max 0.2 au
Coordinate used
28.80, -83.31
Close-approach objects
29
Above horizon
16
Bright-ish above horizon
0 using apparent magnitude <= 10 screen
5.7 NASA/JPL Objects Above Horizon
Object
Close Approach UTC
Dist au
H
Az
El
App Mag
2023 WE2
2023-Nov-19 10:07
0.00162266083274438
27.04
35.37
36.33
15.91
2023 WA2
2023-Nov-18 21:48
0.0101159536203337
25.03
94.47
8.55
16.72
2021 VZ6
2023-Nov-19 14:49
0.0543875399997685
25.15
64.12
7.61
19.41
2021 WB2
2023-Nov-19 09:44
0.0281949197955757
24.60
354.07
15.40
19.45
2014 WR365
2023-Nov-18 14:52
0.183312310203469
23.27
53.97
11.09
20.73
2023 XV
2023-Nov-18 00:32
0.0961757694299367
24.27
35.30
33.70
20.91
2023 WL3
2023-Nov-19 20:21
0.109995281073024
23.96
60.69
49.39
20.95
2023 XK11
2023-Nov-19 17:03
0.0985847993172499
23.33
161.50
2.28
21.30
2023 VB10
2023-Nov-19 21:35
0.0362921633891739
26.27
77.82
67.94
21.31
2023 VD9
2023-Nov-18 07:12
0.0637626175263115
24.10
297.71
61.69
21.88
5.8 NASA/JPL Bright-Candidate Result
Object
Az
El
App Mag
No above-horizon close-approach object met the apparent magnitude <= 10 screen.
NASA/JPL CAD listed 29 near-Earth close approaches in the event-date +/-1 day window within 0.2 au.
Horizons placed 16 of those objects above the local horizon at the report coordinate/time.
None of the above-horizon close-approach objects were remotely bright enough for naked-eye explanation using the mag<=10 screen.
5.9 NASA / NOAA / ADS-B Expansion Layer
This source layer adds free NASA context that was previously missing from most packet cases. It is contextual evidence; it does not replace aircraft, satellite, balloon, or radar causation tests.
Requires targeted extraction from large daily history archives before claiming aircraft exhaustion.
NOAA GOES imagery
not yet exhausted
Needed for cloud/lightning visual context.
NOAA GOES ABI/GLM manifest
screened/present
Public S3 object availability for the report hour.
NOAA NEXRAD weather radar
not yet exhausted
Weather radar only; not ATC radar.
NOAA IGRA radiosonde
screened/present
Needed for balloon drift plausibility.
ASOS/METAR weather observations
screened/present
Nearest station surface observations around report time.
ADSB.lol historical: extract aircraft traces from adsblol/globe_history_2023 for 2023-11-19, then filter +/-60 min and 250 nmi around 28.8025,-83.3055.
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI: batch context for 237UAP00318 at 2023-11-19T22:50:00+00:00.
NOAA GOES: pull nearest ABI/GLM products for the UTC hour and render cloud/lightning map.
NOAA NEXRAD: select nearest radar stations and render Level-II/III weather radar sweep around event time.
NOAA IGRA: find nearest radiosonde station launches bracketing the event and model wind drift for balloon-like descriptions.
Space-Track gp_history/decay: fetch exact historical element rows and decay/reentry status for top candidate NORAD IDs.
5.12 Weather, Imagery, and Balloon Query Plan
This plan identifies the concrete free sources needed for the next case-specific weather and balloon checks. These are not treated as completed exclusions until the data are downloaded and plotted.
surface visibility ranged 10-10 statute miles; no precipitation was reported in the retained observations; no low broken/overcast cloud ceiling was evident in the retained station observations. Surface ASOS/METAR observations describe airport-level weather and visibility; they do not by themselves prove conditions at the sighting altitude or line of sight.
Nearest sounding implies mean 0-12 km wind drift toward 276.4 deg at 18.39 m/s; a passive balloon could drift about 132.4 km in two hours under this crude layer-average model. Radiosonde winds are sparse station soundings; balloon drift remains approximate without launch time, ascent rate, object altitude, and exact line-of-sight bearing.
Station
Name
Distance km
Sounding UTC
Mean drift bearing
Mean speed m/s
2h drift km
Max wind
USM00072210
TAMPA BAY AREA; FL.
150.80
2023-11-20T00:00:00+00:00
276.40
18.39
132.40
35.50 at 21591.00 m
5.17 NOAA GOES ABI/GLM Public File Manifest
GOES public S3 objects are listed for the report hour where available. This is an availability manifest, not yet a rendered satellite image.
This layer uses the downloaded ADSB.lol daily history archive to test actual aircraft tracks near the report coordinate and minute. It is not treated as a primary-radar substitute; it is a transponder/receiver-derived aircraft screen.
Archive window
2023-11-19T21:50:00+00:00 to 2023-11-19T23:50:00+00:00
Radius
250.00 nmi
Trace files scanned
19340
Tracks retained
800
Support status
aircraft strong candidate present
Best-candidate note
ordinary-object favored if the report's count, color, direction, and motion can be reconciled with the candidate track(s).
Strong candidates
21
Plausible candidates
115
Reporting-aircraft tracks excluded
3
Weak candidates
193
5.19 Top ADS-B Candidate Tracks
Aircraft
Status
Score
Min dist km
Nearest dt min
Alt ft
Az
El
C-FPRP B738 c02966
strong aircraft candidate
91.67
13.80
0.10
35000
268.10
35.41
N81ER C25B ab0777
strong aircraft candidate
80.99
5.30
0.13
11025
90.50
49.37
N189WT C560 a16421
strong aircraft candidate
76.95
54.10
0.09
33300
76.70
9.86
N7720F B737 aa72d3
strong aircraft candidate
76.31
57.70
0.06
32000
47.40
9.18
N537DT A21N a6cacb
strong aircraft candidate
72.72
48.80
0.07
30025
24.40
8.93
N8575F P28A abc466
strong aircraft candidate
69.72
36.10
0.70
5575
51.50
2.30
N630NK A320 a83ef2
strong aircraft candidate
69.35
75.80
0.09
34000
217.10
7.03
N172DP C72R a120f4
strong aircraft candidate
65.47
59.60
0.10
7600
63.70
1.94
6. Annotated Evidence Figure
Generated figure copied from the local evidence-plot output. It is included as an analytic visualization, not as original sensor imagery.
7. Analytic Comparison
Criterion
Report Evidence
Analytic Treatment
Time constraint
2023-11-19T22:50:00+00:00
Directly used in propagation; this is a hard filter, not descriptive context.
Location constraint
28.80250, -83.30554
Directly used as observer point for azimuth/elevation/range computation.
Count / pattern
multiple-object/light language present
No compact same-launch count match; retained for unresolved report features.
Motion language
not explicit
Apparent motion labels in the object table provide a plausible but not definitive comparison.
Radar / official check
not observed on ATC radar
No ATC radar return can be consistent with distant orbital objects or visual aircraft-light hypotheses, but it does not prove the match.
Analytic disposition
normal-object
237UAP00318 is assessed as normal-object favored because the available public evidence gives a case-specific ordinary-object candidate: strong ADS-B aircraft candidate C-FPRP B738 c02966 at 14.9 km, azimuth 268.1 deg, elevation 35.41 deg, 2.52 min from report. Dense satellite presence alone is not treated as causation in this packet.
8. Caveats, Limitations, and Collection Gaps
No raw cockpit video, ATC replay, radar plot, or witness interview transcript was reviewed unless explicitly stated in the public source text.
Aviation-derived coordinates can represent a nearby fix/radial or report point, not necessarily the actual line-of-sight intercept point.
Starlink visibility depends on illumination, observer altitude, atmospheric conditions, and apparent brightness; this analysis tests geometry, not photometry. No brightness model is used unless explicitly stated elsewhere in the case file.
TLE propagation is appropriate for screening and reconstruction but is not a substitute for authoritative operational ephemerides.
When many satellites are above the horizon, generic presence is weak evidence and is not treated as causation. The report emphasizes named launch-object checks or compact same-launch trajectory groups.
Normal-object favored is not the same as a perfect named-object identification; it requires a case-specific ordinary-object candidate stronger than simple object density.
Appendix A. Public Report Text Extracts
237UAP00318
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT
PRIMARY CODE: UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL PHENOMENON
Date: 22:50 11/19/2023 Callsign: ASA516 Origin: SEA
Status: Closed Aircraft: B39M Destination: FLL
POD: DEN Tail Number: New Destination:
Reporting Facility: ZJX Operator: ASA Operator Type: Commercial
Paged: YES
REMARKS
Multiple aircraft reported an unidentified aerial phenomenon off in the vicinity of LAL306084, NW of TPA. The unknown
phenomenon was described as an object the size of an aircraft at approximately FL250 to FL310. The UAP was not observed on
ATC facility radar system. This incident was initially reported by 5 aircraft observing the same white object. No evasive
maneuvers reported, no impact to operations.
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT | DATE: 2023-11-19T22:50 | POD: DEN | PAGE 1 of 1
Appendix B. Computational Evidence Digest
This appendix preserves the principal computed values used in the assessment, shortened to the fields most relevant to audit and review.
This checklist records which source layers were actually applied to this individual report. It separates checked evidence from unexhausted collection gaps so the disposition is auditable when the PDF is read alone.
Source Layer
Status
Case-Specific Note
NARA public UAP/FAA report
reviewed
Source IDs: 237UAP00318
Time and observer coordinate
extracted
2023-11-19T22:50:00+00:00 at 28.80250, -83.30554
Orbital object propagation
screened
Starlink
Space-Track SATCAT metadata
screened
30 NORAD IDs checked; 30 matched in local SATCAT subset
Launch-object/SupGP layer
not applicable
not a launch-object case
NASA/JPL known small-body layer
screened
CAD/Horizons secondary screen included when this case had NEO-relevant timing/geometry
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI context
screened
Hourly weather, sky geometry, and space-weather context where local JSON is present
Nearest station visibility, cloud, wind, precipitation, and METAR observations
Weather/balloon source plan
planned
Nearest weather-airport, GOES, and radiosonde queries are listed where local plan JSON is present
Final analytic disposition
normal-object favored
Presence-only satellite density is context only; a stronger case-specific fit is required for normal-object disposition
References and Source Links
National Archives and Records Administration. Records Related to Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) and Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs) at the National Archives.https://www.archives.gov/research/topics/uaps
National Archives Catalog. Records from the Federal Aviation Administration Relating to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena, National Archives Identifier 493468575.https://catalog.archives.gov/id/493468575
Space-Track.org. Public source for the underlying U.S. Space Surveillance Network TLE distribution referenced by the historical TLE archive.https://www.space-track.org/