PUBLIC RELEASE SOURCE REVIEW ยท INDEPENDENT ANALYTIC CASE FILE
CASE FILE 39 / 237UAP00074
237UAP00074
Time/location anchored public UAP report; score 54
HIGH-VALUE UNRESOLVED
Report No.
UAP-OM-39-237UAP00074
Disposition
HIGH-VALUE UNRESOLVED
Primary Case
237UAP00074
Generated
2026-05-20 18:32 UTC
Report Time
2021-11-28T20:10:00+00:00
Observer
39.30232, -76.93549
Source Case IDs
237UAP00074
Abstract
This case file evaluates a reported UAP sighting against the available orbital-object layer. No compact same-launch group fully identifies the file by itself. The final disposition is assigned under a normal-object favored standard, where ordinary aerospace/orbital explanations are preferred when they reasonably fit the report.
This is a standalone independent analysis prepared from public-source records and public orbital datasets. It is not an official government determination, classification marking, or agency-authored report.
1. Executive Summary
237UAP00074 was screened against historical public LEO catalog objects orbital elements at the extracted time and observer coordinate. The screen did not produce enough mundane evidence to close the case under the normal-object favored standard. Hard features retained for follow-up: radar/primary evidence.
1.1 Key Findings
Source score 54 based on: radar/primary-return language, NORAD/AMOC/EADS/CONR check, UAP/UFO language.
Report time used: 2021-11-28T20:10:00+00:00.
External object layer used: public LEO catalog objects.
Disposition standard: UNRESOLVED requires case-specific causal fit. Satellite density above the horizon is context only and cannot by itself resolve the report.
Non-causal context / rejection screens: very dense orbital-object sky background; context only, not causation.
Remaining hard features: radar/primary evidence.
Objects above horizon: 956; at/above 10 deg: 462.
No compact same-launch/designator group survived the report threshold.
No explicit Starlink/balloon wording was found in the source excerpt used for ranking.
1.2 Bottom Line
HIGH-VALUE UNRESOLVED: Hard report features remain after the normal-object screens, such as primary/radar evidence, multiple witnesses, footage references, or motion language that still conflicts with the available object layer.
2. Source Control
The source-control table identifies the public report records reviewed for this case and lists public access links where available. The table is included so this PDF remains interpretable when distributed by itself.
PCT reported a primary target at the DCA0100027, southeast bound, AADS shows np target. AMOC shows primary moving SE at 56 knots. DOD shows target SE at 10 knots. Continuing to observe. 2027 Appears to be 3 miles north of BWI, tower reports no joy. 2037 Primary target exited the SFRA at the DCA090030. No further action.
Report time used
2021-11-28T20:10:00+00:00
Observer coordinate used
39.30232, -76.93549
Observer source basis
aviation_radial:DCA0100027 (public text extract 237UAP00074)
4. Methodology
Spacetime extraction. The report time and observer coordinate were extracted from the public text report and normalized to UTC. Aviation fixes/radials were resolved during earlier preprocessing where applicable.
External object dataset. The object layer used historical Space-Track/TLE-derived public LEO catalog objects element rows. The analytic mode for this case is historical public LEO catalog objects element propagation and same-launch/designator sky grouping.
Propagation. Orbital elements were propagated to the report minute and observer location. For launch-object checks, samples around the report minute were retained. For Starlink group checks, objects above the horizon were clustered by sky position and filtered for same-launch groupings.
Comparison. The output was compared against the report's count of lights, direction cue, motion language, altitude/radar language, and whether the file itself already suggested a satellite explanation.
Causation standard. Mere object presence above the horizon is treated as background context only. A normal-object disposition requires a case-specific causal fit, such as a named launch object, a compact same-launch trajectory group, or source language that directly supports that object class.
Disposition assignment.Identified means a specific normal object fits the report spacetime and the hard reported features do not materially conflict. Normal-object favored means a case-specific ordinary aerospace/orbital candidate exists, but it is not a full named identification. Insufficient means the file is too thin to carry high anomaly value. High-value unresolved is used when radar, video, rapid maneuver, or multi-witness features remain after reasonable normal-object checks.
5. External Object Evidence
5.1 Search Volume and Density
This table is a screening layer only. Objects above the horizon show background opportunity; they do not establish causation unless a specific object or compact trajectory group matches the reported behavior.
public LEO catalog objects catalog IDs considered
17259
Historical element rows
17259
Above horizon at report minute
956
At/above 10 deg
462
Largest same-sky cluster
462
No compact same-launch/designator group survived the report threshold. In this condition, satellite density remains context only and cannot by itself resolve a report with hard features.
5.2 Same-Launch / Same-Designator Candidate Groups
#
Launch Date
Count
Azimuth Span
Elevation Span
Motion Labels
Members
No same-launch group identified.
5.3 Primary Group Members
Object
NORAD
Launch
Az
El
Range km
Apparent Motion
Element Age h
No members available.
5.4 Bright-Sky Context: Top public LEO catalog objects Objects by Elevation
Space-Track SATCAT metadata was pulled as a cached subset for NORAD catalog IDs appearing in this packet's evidence tables. This section adds owner/type/status context to the propagated object candidates.
Packet SATCAT subset rows
5370
Fetched
2026-05-19T01:19:50+00:00
This case NORAD IDs checked
30
SATCAT rows matched
29
Top owners
US: 16, CIS: 5, PRC: 4, UK: 2, ESA: 1, GLOB: 1
Object types
DEBRIS: 14, PAYLOAD: 12, ROCKET BODY: 3
5.7 Space-Track Metadata for Top Propagated Objects
NORAD
Object Name
Type
Owner
Launch Date
Decay Date
41404
NOAA 16 DEB
DEBRIS
US
2000-09-21
n/a
30926
FENGYUN 1C DEB
DEBRIS
PRC
1999-05-10
n/a
46958
SPACEBEE-39
PAYLOAD
US
2020-11-20
2022-11-29
34351
IRIDIUM 33 DEB
DEBRIS
US
1997-09-14
2024-01-30
48075
ONEWEB-0178
PAYLOAD
UK
2021-03-25
n/a
24797
DELTA 2 R/B
ROCKET BODY
US
1997-05-05
n/a
48062
ONEWEB-0159
PAYLOAD
UK
2021-03-25
n/a
37741
GLOBALSTAR M091
PAYLOAD
GLOB
2011-07-13
n/a
21551
DELTA 1 DEB
DEBRIS
US
1975-06-12
n/a
16269
COSMOS 1691 DEB
DEBRIS
CIS
1985-10-09
n/a
40755
DELTA 1 DEB
DEBRIS
US
1976-07-29
n/a
10658
DELTA 1 DEB
DEBRIS
US
1976-07-29
n/a
5.9 NASA / NOAA / ADS-B Expansion Layer
This source layer adds free NASA context that was previously missing from most packet cases. It is contextual evidence; it does not replace aircraft, satellite, balloon, or radar causation tests.
Requires targeted extraction from large daily history archives before claiming aircraft exhaustion.
NOAA GOES imagery
not yet exhausted
Needed for cloud/lightning visual context.
NOAA GOES ABI/GLM manifest
screened/present
Public S3 object availability for the report hour.
NOAA NEXRAD weather radar
not yet exhausted
Weather radar only; not ATC radar.
NOAA IGRA radiosonde
screened/present
Needed for balloon drift plausibility.
ASOS/METAR weather observations
screened/present
Nearest station surface observations around report time.
ADSB.lol historical: extract aircraft traces from no public ADSB.lol annual repo found for 2021-11-28, then filter +/-60 min and 250 nmi around 39.3023,-76.9355.
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI: batch context for 237UAP00074 at 2021-11-28T20:10:00+00:00.
NOAA GOES: pull nearest ABI/GLM products for the UTC hour and render cloud/lightning map.
NOAA NEXRAD: select nearest radar stations and render Level-II/III weather radar sweep around event time.
NOAA IGRA: find nearest radiosonde station launches bracketing the event and model wind drift for balloon-like descriptions.
Space-Track gp_history/decay: fetch exact historical element rows and decay/reentry status for top candidate NORAD IDs.
5.12 Weather, Imagery, and Balloon Query Plan
This plan identifies the concrete free sources needed for the next case-specific weather and balloon checks. These are not treated as completed exclusions until the data are downloaded and plotted.
surface visibility ranged 10-10 statute miles; no precipitation was reported in the retained observations; no low broken/overcast cloud ceiling was evident in the retained station observations. Surface ASOS/METAR observations describe airport-level weather and visibility; they do not by themselves prove conditions at the sighting altitude or line of sight.
Nearest sounding implies mean 0-12 km wind drift toward 77.1 deg at 29.18 m/s; a passive balloon could drift about 210.1 km in two hours under this crude layer-average model. Radiosonde winds are sparse station soundings; balloon drift remains approximate without launch time, ascent rate, object altitude, and exact line-of-sight bearing.
Station
Name
Distance km
Sounding UTC
Mean drift bearing
Mean speed m/s
2h drift km
Max wind
USM00072403
STERLING; VA.
59.70
2021-11-29T00:00:00+00:00
77.10
29.18
210.10
49.40 at 9020.00 m
5.17 NOAA GOES ABI/GLM Public File Manifest
GOES public S3 objects are listed for the report hour where available. This is an availability manifest, not yet a rendered satellite image.
Generated figure copied from the local evidence-plot output. It is included as an analytic visualization, not as original sensor imagery.
7. Analytic Comparison
Criterion
Report Evidence
Analytic Treatment
Time constraint
2021-11-28T20:10:00+00:00
Directly used in propagation; this is a hard filter, not descriptive context.
Location constraint
39.30232, -76.93549
Directly used as observer point for azimuth/elevation/range computation.
Count / pattern
three-object/light language present
No compact same-launch count match; retained for unresolved report features.
Motion language
moving
Reported motion remains only partly explained; this is a principal reason for high-value unresolved status.
Radar / official check
not specified
Radar or hard maneuvering language is treated as a conflict/collection gap, not hand-waved away.
Analytic disposition
unresolved
237UAP00074 was screened against historical public LEO catalog objects orbital elements at the extracted time and observer coordinate. The screen did not produce enough mundane evidence to close the case under the normal-object favored standard. Hard features retained for follow-up: radar/primary evidence.
8. Caveats, Limitations, and Collection Gaps
No raw cockpit video, ATC replay, radar plot, or witness interview transcript was reviewed unless explicitly stated in the public source text.
Aviation-derived coordinates can represent a nearby fix/radial or report point, not necessarily the actual line-of-sight intercept point.
Starlink visibility depends on illumination, observer altitude, atmospheric conditions, and apparent brightness; this analysis tests geometry, not photometry. No brightness model is used unless explicitly stated elsewhere in the case file.
TLE propagation is appropriate for screening and reconstruction but is not a substitute for authoritative operational ephemerides.
When many satellites are above the horizon, generic presence is weak evidence and is not treated as causation. The report emphasizes named launch-object checks or compact same-launch trajectory groups.
This case is retained as high-value unresolved because the hardest reported behavior is not resolved by the current normal-object layers.
Appendix A. Public Report Text Extracts
237UAP00074
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT
PRIMARY CODE: UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL PHENOMENON
Date: 20:10 11/28/2021 Paged: NO
Status: Closed
POD: NCRCC
Reporting Facility: PCT
REMARKS
PCT reported a primary target at the DCA0100027, southeast bound, AADS shows np target. AMOC shows primary moving SE
at 56 knots. DOD shows target SE at 10 knots. Continuing to observe. 2027 Appears to be 3 miles north of BWI, tower
reports no joy. 2037 Primary target exited the SFRA at the DCA090030. No further action.
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT | DATE: 2021-11-28T20:10 | POD: NCRCC | PAGE 1 of 1
Appendix B. Computational Evidence Digest
This appendix preserves the principal computed values used in the assessment, shortened to the fields most relevant to audit and review.
This checklist records which source layers were actually applied to this individual report. It separates checked evidence from unexhausted collection gaps so the disposition is auditable when the PDF is read alone.
Source Layer
Status
Case-Specific Note
NARA public UAP/FAA report
reviewed
Source IDs: 237UAP00074
Time and observer coordinate
extracted
2021-11-28T20:10:00+00:00 at 39.30232, -76.93549
Orbital object propagation
screened
public LEO catalog objects
Space-Track SATCAT metadata
screened
30 NORAD IDs checked; 29 matched in local SATCAT subset
Launch-object/SupGP layer
not applicable
not a launch-object case
NASA/JPL known small-body layer
not selected
CAD/Horizons secondary screen included when this case had NEO-relevant timing/geometry
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI context
screened
Hourly weather, sky geometry, and space-weather context where local JSON is present
Aircraft/ADS-B layer
not exhausted
ADSB.lol historical release pattern is recorded separately; actual aircraft exhaustion requires targeted trace extraction
NOAA GOES imagery layer
not exhausted
Cloud/lightning imagery layer for the report hour
NOAA GOES ABI/GLM manifest
screened
Public S3 object listing for the report hour
NOAA/NEXRAD weather radar layer
not exhausted
Weather radar only; not ATC/primary radar
NOAA IGRA radiosonde layer
screened
Balloon drift plausibility layer
ASOS/METAR surface weather
screened
Nearest station visibility, cloud, wind, precipitation, and METAR observations
Weather/balloon source plan
planned
Nearest weather-airport, GOES, and radiosonde queries are listed where local plan JSON is present
Final analytic disposition
high-value unresolved
Presence-only satellite density is context only; a stronger case-specific fit is required for normal-object disposition
References and Source Links
National Archives and Records Administration. Records Related to Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) and Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs) at the National Archives.https://www.archives.gov/research/topics/uaps
National Archives Catalog. Records from the Federal Aviation Administration Relating to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena, National Archives Identifier 493468575.https://catalog.archives.gov/id/493468575
Space-Track.org. Public source for the underlying U.S. Space Surveillance Network TLE distribution referenced by the historical TLE archive.https://www.space-track.org/