PUBLIC RELEASE SOURCE REVIEW ยท INDEPENDENT ANALYTIC CASE FILE
CASE FILE 40 / 237UAP00227
237UAP00227
Radar/correlation-focused public UAP report; score 54
HIGH-VALUE UNRESOLVED
Report No.
UAP-OM-40-237UAP00227
Disposition
HIGH-VALUE UNRESOLVED
Primary Case
237UAP00227
Generated
2026-05-20 18:32 UTC
Report Time
2023-02-24T16:10:00+00:00
Observer
38.75641, -77.39766
Source Case IDs
237UAP00227
Abstract
This case file evaluates a reported UAP sighting against historical Starlink orbital elements. The primary external-object candidate is a 14-object same-launch group from 2023-02-02, spanning azimuth 262.05-287.94 deg and elevation 10.67-45.99 deg. The analysis distinguishes plausible geometric overlap from unresolved witness-language features.
This is a standalone independent analysis prepared from public-source records and public orbital datasets. It is not an official government determination, classification marking, or agency-authored report.
1. Executive Summary
237UAP00227 remains high-value unresolved after screening against historical Starlink orbital elements. The strongest compact object grouping contains 14 objects from 2023-02-02; however, this does not close the case because hard report features remain: radar/primary evidence. Context noted but not treated as causation: substantial orbital-object sky background; context only, not causation.
1.1 Key Findings
Source score 54 based on: radar/primary-return language, NORAD/AMOC/EADS/CONR check, UAP/UFO language.
Report time used: 2023-02-24T16:10:00+00:00.
External object layer used: Starlink.
Disposition standard: UNRESOLVED requires case-specific causal fit. Satellite density above the horizon is context only and cannot by itself resolve the report.
Top compact same-launch/designator group: 14 objects from 2023-02-02.
No explicit Starlink/balloon wording was found in the source excerpt used for ranking.
1.2 Bottom Line
HIGH-VALUE UNRESOLVED: Hard report features remain after the normal-object screens, such as primary/radar evidence, multiple witnesses, footage references, or motion language that still conflicts with the available object layer.
2. Source Control
The source-control table identifies the public report records reviewed for this case and lists public access links where available. The table is included so this PDF remains interpretable when distributed by itself.
DCA1: DCA250018, primary target, heading 100 degree, 100 knots. 1615 PCT, HEF, and DAA no communication with target.1616 BLKJK scrambled, ADW Battle Stations. WADS radar was displayed target at 16000ft. 1617 ONEC convened. 1618 Sparkle at DCA210011. BLKJK held in FRZ. since target was outbound from FRZ. 1635 Aircraft exited SFRA at the DCA130030. ADW canceled all tactical actions. BLKJK RTB. 1640 NCR condition clear. ONEC terminated. WADS continued to track. No visual verification. PCT will file the MOR. JH notified.
Report time used
2023-02-24T16:10:00+00:00
Observer coordinate used
38.75641, -77.39766
Observer source basis
aviation_radial:DCA250018 (public text extract 237UAP00227)
4. Methodology
Spacetime extraction. The report time and observer coordinate were extracted from the public text report and normalized to UTC. Aviation fixes/radials were resolved during earlier preprocessing where applicable.
External object dataset. The object layer used historical Space-Track/TLE-derived Starlink element rows. The analytic mode for this case is historical Starlink element propagation and same-launch/designator sky grouping.
Propagation. Orbital elements were propagated to the report minute and observer location. For launch-object checks, samples around the report minute were retained. For Starlink group checks, objects above the horizon were clustered by sky position and filtered for same-launch groupings.
Comparison. The output was compared against the report's count of lights, direction cue, motion language, altitude/radar language, and whether the file itself already suggested a satellite explanation.
Causation standard. Mere object presence above the horizon is treated as background context only. A normal-object disposition requires a case-specific causal fit, such as a named launch object, a compact same-launch trajectory group, or source language that directly supports that object class.
Disposition assignment.Identified means a specific normal object fits the report spacetime and the hard reported features do not materially conflict. Normal-object favored means a case-specific ordinary aerospace/orbital candidate exists, but it is not a full named identification. Insufficient means the file is too thin to carry high anomaly value. High-value unresolved is used when radar, video, rapid maneuver, or multi-witness features remain after reasonable normal-object checks.
5. External Object Evidence
5.1 Search Volume and Density
This table is a screening layer only. Objects above the horizon show background opportunity; they do not establish causation unless a specific object or compact trajectory group matches the reported behavior.
Starlink catalog IDs considered
3683
Historical element rows
3683
Above horizon at report minute
207
At/above 10 deg
100
Largest same-sky cluster
67
5.2 Same-Launch / Same-Designator Candidate Groups
Space-Track SATCAT metadata was pulled as a cached subset for NORAD catalog IDs appearing in this packet's evidence tables. This section adds owner/type/status context to the propagated object candidates.
Packet SATCAT subset rows
5370
Fetched
2026-05-19T01:19:50+00:00
This case NORAD IDs checked
40
SATCAT rows matched
40
Top owners
US: 40
Object types
PAYLOAD: 40
5.7 Space-Track Metadata for Top Propagated Objects
NORAD
Object Name
Type
Owner
Launch Date
Decay Date
54069
STARLINK-5223
PAYLOAD
US
2022-10-20
2024-08-28
50195
STARLINK-3266
PAYLOAD
US
2021-12-18
n/a
46706
STARLINK-1807
PAYLOAD
US
2020-10-18
n/a
44917
STARLINK-1098
PAYLOAD
US
2020-01-07
2025-09-14
48408
STARLINK-2592
PAYLOAD
US
2021-05-04
n/a
45732
STARLINK-1466
PAYLOAD
US
2020-06-13
2024-09-02
45101
STARLINK-1194
PAYLOAD
US
2020-01-29
2024-07-30
55499
STARLINK-5366
PAYLOAD
US
2023-02-02
n/a
53705
STARLINK-4717
PAYLOAD
US
2022-09-05
n/a
51786
STARLINK-3638
PAYLOAD
US
2022-02-25
n/a
55501
STARLINK-5367
PAYLOAD
US
2023-02-02
n/a
55498
STARLINK-5365
PAYLOAD
US
2023-02-02
n/a
5.9 NASA / NOAA / ADS-B Expansion Layer
This source layer adds free NASA context that was previously missing from most packet cases. It is contextual evidence; it does not replace aircraft, satellite, balloon, or radar causation tests.
Requires targeted extraction from large daily history archives before claiming aircraft exhaustion.
NOAA GOES imagery
not yet exhausted
Needed for cloud/lightning visual context.
NOAA GOES ABI/GLM manifest
screened/present
Public S3 object availability for the report hour.
NOAA NEXRAD weather radar
not yet exhausted
Weather radar only; not ATC radar.
NOAA IGRA radiosonde
screened/present
Needed for balloon drift plausibility.
ASOS/METAR weather observations
screened/present
Nearest station surface observations around report time.
ADSB.lol historical: extract aircraft traces from adsblol/globe_history_2023 for 2023-02-24, then filter +/-60 min and 250 nmi around 38.7564,-77.3977.
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI: batch context for 237UAP00227 at 2023-02-24T16:10:00+00:00.
NOAA GOES: pull nearest ABI/GLM products for the UTC hour and render cloud/lightning map.
NOAA NEXRAD: select nearest radar stations and render Level-II/III weather radar sweep around event time.
NOAA IGRA: find nearest radiosonde station launches bracketing the event and model wind drift for balloon-like descriptions.
Space-Track gp_history/decay: fetch exact historical element rows and decay/reentry status for top candidate NORAD IDs.
5.12 Weather, Imagery, and Balloon Query Plan
This plan identifies the concrete free sources needed for the next case-specific weather and balloon checks. These are not treated as completed exclusions until the data are downloaded and plotted.
surface visibility ranged 10-10 statute miles; no precipitation was reported in the retained observations; no low broken/overcast cloud ceiling was evident in the retained station observations. Surface ASOS/METAR observations describe airport-level weather and visibility; they do not by themselves prove conditions at the sighting altitude or line of sight.
Nearest sounding implies mean 0-12 km wind drift toward 307.7 deg at 8.43 m/s; a passive balloon could drift about 60.7 km in two hours under this crude layer-average model. Radiosonde winds are sparse station soundings; balloon drift remains approximate without launch time, ascent rate, object altitude, and exact line-of-sight bearing.
Station
Name
Distance km
Sounding UTC
Mean drift bearing
Mean speed m/s
2h drift km
Max wind
USM00072403
STERLING; VA.
25.70
2023-02-24T12:00:00+00:00
307.70
8.43
60.70
36.00 at 23421.00 m
5.17 NOAA GOES ABI/GLM Public File Manifest
GOES public S3 objects are listed for the report hour where available. This is an availability manifest, not yet a rendered satellite image.
Generated figure copied from the local evidence-plot output. It is included as an analytic visualization, not as original sensor imagery.
7. Analytic Comparison
Criterion
Report Evidence
Analytic Treatment
Time constraint
2023-02-24T16:10:00+00:00
Directly used in propagation; this is a hard filter, not descriptive context.
Location constraint
38.75641, -77.39766
Directly used as observer point for azimuth/elevation/range computation.
Count / pattern
not explicit
Primary same-launch group contains 14 propagated objects in a compact sky sector.
Motion language
not explicit
Reported motion remains only partly explained; this is a principal reason for high-value unresolved status.
Radar / official check
not specified
Radar or hard maneuvering language is treated as a conflict/collection gap, not hand-waved away.
Analytic disposition
unresolved
237UAP00227 remains high-value unresolved after screening against historical Starlink orbital elements. The strongest compact object grouping contains 14 objects from 2023-02-02; however, this does not close the case because hard report features remain: radar/primary evidence. Context noted but not treated as causation: substantial orbital-object sky background; context only, not causation.
8. Caveats, Limitations, and Collection Gaps
No raw cockpit video, ATC replay, radar plot, or witness interview transcript was reviewed unless explicitly stated in the public source text.
Aviation-derived coordinates can represent a nearby fix/radial or report point, not necessarily the actual line-of-sight intercept point.
Starlink visibility depends on illumination, observer altitude, atmospheric conditions, and apparent brightness; this analysis tests geometry, not photometry. No brightness model is used unless explicitly stated elsewhere in the case file.
TLE propagation is appropriate for screening and reconstruction but is not a substitute for authoritative operational ephemerides.
When many satellites are above the horizon, generic presence is weak evidence and is not treated as causation. The report emphasizes named launch-object checks or compact same-launch trajectory groups.
This case is retained as high-value unresolved because the hardest reported behavior is not resolved by the current normal-object layers.
Appendix A. Public Report Text Extracts
237UAP00227
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT
PRIMARY CODE: TOI-NCR FRZ
Date: 16:10 02/24/2023 Paged: YES
Status: Closed
POD: NCRCC
Reporting Facility: NCRCC
Secondary Codes: TOI-NCR SFRA, UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL PHENOMENON
REMARKS
DCA1: DCA250018, primary target, heading 100 degree, 100 knots. 1615 PCT, HEF, and DAA no communication with
target.1616 BLKJK scrambled, ADW Battle Stations. WADS radar was displayed target at 16000ft. 1617 ONEC convened. 1618
Sparkle at DCA210011. BLKJK held in FRZ. since target was outbound from FRZ. 1635 Aircraft exited SFRA at the DCA130030.
ADW canceled all tactical actions. BLKJK RTB. 1640 NCR condition clear. ONEC terminated. WADS continued to track. No
visual verification. PCT will file the MOR. JH notified.
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT | DATE: 2023-02-24T16:10 | POD: NCRCC | PAGE 1 of 1
Appendix B. Computational Evidence Digest
This appendix preserves the principal computed values used in the assessment, shortened to the fields most relevant to audit and review.
This checklist records which source layers were actually applied to this individual report. It separates checked evidence from unexhausted collection gaps so the disposition is auditable when the PDF is read alone.
Source Layer
Status
Case-Specific Note
NARA public UAP/FAA report
reviewed
Source IDs: 237UAP00227
Time and observer coordinate
extracted
2023-02-24T16:10:00+00:00 at 38.75641, -77.39766
Orbital object propagation
screened
Starlink
Space-Track SATCAT metadata
screened
40 NORAD IDs checked; 40 matched in local SATCAT subset
Launch-object/SupGP layer
not applicable
not a launch-object case
NASA/JPL known small-body layer
not selected
CAD/Horizons secondary screen included when this case had NEO-relevant timing/geometry
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI context
screened
Hourly weather, sky geometry, and space-weather context where local JSON is present
Aircraft/ADS-B layer
not exhausted
ADSB.lol historical release pattern is recorded separately; actual aircraft exhaustion requires targeted trace extraction
NOAA GOES imagery layer
not exhausted
Cloud/lightning imagery layer for the report hour
NOAA GOES ABI/GLM manifest
screened
Public S3 object listing for the report hour
NOAA/NEXRAD weather radar layer
not exhausted
Weather radar only; not ATC/primary radar
NOAA IGRA radiosonde layer
screened
Balloon drift plausibility layer
ASOS/METAR surface weather
screened
Nearest station visibility, cloud, wind, precipitation, and METAR observations
Weather/balloon source plan
planned
Nearest weather-airport, GOES, and radiosonde queries are listed where local plan JSON is present
Final analytic disposition
high-value unresolved
Presence-only satellite density is context only; a stronger case-specific fit is required for normal-object disposition
References and Source Links
National Archives and Records Administration. Records Related to Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) and Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs) at the National Archives.https://www.archives.gov/research/topics/uaps
National Archives Catalog. Records from the Federal Aviation Administration Relating to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena, National Archives Identifier 493468575.https://catalog.archives.gov/id/493468575
Space-Track.org. Public source for the underlying U.S. Space Surveillance Network TLE distribution referenced by the historical TLE archive.https://www.space-track.org/