PUBLIC RELEASE SOURCE REVIEW ยท INDEPENDENT ANALYTIC CASE FILE
CASE FILE 94 / 237UAP00203
237UAP00203
Multiple-witness public UAP report; score 24
NORMAL-OBJECT FAVORED
Report No.
UAP-OM-94-237UAP00203
Disposition
NORMAL-OBJECT FAVORED
Primary Case
237UAP00203
Generated
2026-05-20 18:32 UTC
Report Time
2023-02-07T10:00:00+00:00
Observer
42.26977, -93.64870
Source Case IDs
237UAP00203
Abstract
This case file evaluates a reported UAP sighting against the available orbital-object layer. No compact same-launch group fully identifies the file by itself. The final disposition is assigned under a normal-object favored standard, where ordinary aerospace/orbital explanations are preferred when they reasonably fit the report.
This is a standalone independent analysis prepared from public-source records and public orbital datasets. It is not an official government determination, classification marking, or agency-authored report.
1. Executive Summary
237UAP00203 is assessed as normal-object favored because the available public evidence gives a case-specific ordinary-object candidate: historical Starlink object traffic at the report spacetime. Dense satellite presence alone is not treated as causation in this packet.
1.1 Key Findings
Source score 24 based on: multiple aircraft/facility witnesses, NORAD/AMOC/EADS/CONR check, UAP/UFO language.
Report time used: 2023-02-07T10:00:00+00:00.
External object layer used: Starlink.
Disposition standard: NORMAL-OBJECT requires case-specific causal fit. Satellite density above the horizon is context only and cannot by itself resolve the report.
Non-causal context / rejection screens: source language itself invokes satellite/space/launch context; substantial orbital-object sky background; context only, not causation.
Remaining hard features: multiple witnesses/facilities.
Objects above horizon: 177; at/above 10 deg: 84.
No compact same-launch/designator group survived the report threshold.
Explicit explanation words in source were noted and penalized: explicit Starlink mention.
1.2 Bottom Line
NORMAL-OBJECT FAVORED: A case-specific ordinary-object candidate exists from source language, orbital geometry, launch-object context, or compact trajectory grouping. Dense ordinary sky traffic alone is not treated as causation.
2. Source Control
The source-control table identifies the public report records reviewed for this case and lists public access links where available. The table is included so this PDF remains interpretable when distributed by itself.
Multiple aircraft reported multiple unidentified aerial phenomenon 50 NM north of DSM moving to the ESE "well above them", 60,000+. The unknown phenomenon was bright flashing lights similar to landing lights. ATC advised them to file a UAP MOR. ATSC and OMIC correlated the report to a STARLINK satellite train consisting of 3-4 groups of 4 units (approximately 20 satellites). FAA NORAD conferenced and concurs.
Report time used
2023-02-07T10:00:00+00:00
Observer coordinate used
42.26977, -93.64870
Observer source basis
aviation_offset:50 NM north of DSM (public text extract 237UAP00203)
4. Methodology
Spacetime extraction. The report time and observer coordinate were extracted from the public text report and normalized to UTC. Aviation fixes/radials were resolved during earlier preprocessing where applicable.
External object dataset. The object layer used historical Space-Track/TLE-derived Starlink element rows. The analytic mode for this case is historical Starlink element propagation and same-launch/designator sky grouping.
Propagation. Orbital elements were propagated to the report minute and observer location. For launch-object checks, samples around the report minute were retained. For Starlink group checks, objects above the horizon were clustered by sky position and filtered for same-launch groupings.
Comparison. The output was compared against the report's count of lights, direction cue, motion language, altitude/radar language, and whether the file itself already suggested a satellite explanation.
Causation standard. Mere object presence above the horizon is treated as background context only. A normal-object disposition requires a case-specific causal fit, such as a named launch object, a compact same-launch trajectory group, or source language that directly supports that object class.
Disposition assignment.Identified means a specific normal object fits the report spacetime and the hard reported features do not materially conflict. Normal-object favored means a case-specific ordinary aerospace/orbital candidate exists, but it is not a full named identification. Insufficient means the file is too thin to carry high anomaly value. High-value unresolved is used when radar, video, rapid maneuver, or multi-witness features remain after reasonable normal-object checks.
5. External Object Evidence
5.1 Search Volume and Density
This table is a screening layer only. Objects above the horizon show background opportunity; they do not establish causation unless a specific object or compact trajectory group matches the reported behavior.
Starlink catalog IDs considered
3580
Historical element rows
3527
Above horizon at report minute
177
At/above 10 deg
84
Largest same-sky cluster
53
No compact same-launch/designator group survived the report threshold. In this condition, satellite density remains context only and cannot by itself resolve a report with hard features.
5.2 Same-Launch / Same-Designator Candidate Groups
#
Launch Date
Count
Azimuth Span
Elevation Span
Motion Labels
Members
No same-launch group identified.
5.3 Primary Group Members
Object
NORAD
Launch
Az
El
Range km
Apparent Motion
Element Age h
No members available.
5.4 Bright-Sky Context: Top Starlink Objects by Elevation
Space-Track SATCAT metadata was pulled as a cached subset for NORAD catalog IDs appearing in this packet's evidence tables. This section adds owner/type/status context to the propagated object candidates.
Packet SATCAT subset rows
5370
Fetched
2026-05-19T01:19:50+00:00
This case NORAD IDs checked
30
SATCAT rows matched
30
Top owners
US: 30
Object types
PAYLOAD: 30
5.7 Space-Track Metadata for Top Propagated Objects
NORAD
Object Name
Type
Owner
Launch Date
Decay Date
52701
STARLINK-4003
PAYLOAD
US
2022-05-18
2025-01-08
49756
STARLINK-3207
PAYLOAD
US
2021-12-02
n/a
46028
STARLINK-1523
PAYLOAD
US
2020-08-07
n/a
45185
STARLINK-1216
PAYLOAD
US
2020-02-17
n/a
52839
STARLINK-4048
PAYLOAD
US
2022-06-17
n/a
47648
STARLINK-2031
PAYLOAD
US
2021-02-16
n/a
47724
STARLINK-2116
PAYLOAD
US
2021-03-04
2026-04-10
45389
STARLINK-1283
PAYLOAD
US
2020-03-18
n/a
47406
STARLINK-2133
PAYLOAD
US
2021-01-20
2026-01-30
48644
STARLINK-2695
PAYLOAD
US
2021-05-26
n/a
45694
STARLINK-1419
PAYLOAD
US
2020-06-04
2023-09-24
54761
STARLINK-5202
PAYLOAD
US
2022-12-17
n/a
5.9 NASA / NOAA / ADS-B Expansion Layer
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI batch context had not yet been written for this case at packet build time.
Requires targeted extraction from large daily history archives before claiming aircraft exhaustion.
NOAA GOES imagery
not yet exhausted
Needed for cloud/lightning visual context.
NOAA GOES ABI/GLM manifest
screened/present
Public S3 object availability for the report hour.
NOAA NEXRAD weather radar
not yet exhausted
Weather radar only; not ATC radar.
NOAA IGRA radiosonde
screened/present
Needed for balloon drift plausibility.
ASOS/METAR weather observations
screened/present
Nearest station surface observations around report time.
ADSB.lol historical: extract aircraft traces from adsblol/globe_history_2023 for 2023-02-07, then filter +/-60 min and 250 nmi around 42.2698,-93.6487.
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI: batch context for 237UAP00203 at 2023-02-07T10:00:00+00:00.
NOAA GOES: pull nearest ABI/GLM products for the UTC hour and render cloud/lightning map.
NOAA NEXRAD: select nearest radar stations and render Level-II/III weather radar sweep around event time.
NOAA IGRA: find nearest radiosonde station launches bracketing the event and model wind drift for balloon-like descriptions.
Space-Track gp_history/decay: fetch exact historical element rows and decay/reentry status for top candidate NORAD IDs.
5.12 Weather, Imagery, and Balloon Query Plan
This plan identifies the concrete free sources needed for the next case-specific weather and balloon checks. These are not treated as completed exclusions until the data are downloaded and plotted.
surface visibility ranged 10-10 statute miles; no precipitation was reported in the retained observations; low/broken/overcast cloud layers were present in at least one observation. Surface ASOS/METAR observations describe airport-level weather and visibility; they do not by themselves prove conditions at the sighting altitude or line of sight.
Nearest sounding implies mean 0-12 km wind drift toward 91.8 deg at 24.24 m/s; a passive balloon could drift about 174.6 km in two hours under this crude layer-average model. Radiosonde winds are sparse station soundings; balloon drift remains approximate without launch time, ascent rate, object altitude, and exact line-of-sight bearing.
Station
Name
Distance km
Sounding UTC
Mean drift bearing
Mean speed m/s
2h drift km
Max wind
USM00072558
VALLEY; NE.
248.80
2023-02-07T12:00:00+00:00
91.80
24.24
174.60
37.60 at 11760.00 m
5.17 NOAA GOES ABI/GLM Public File Manifest
GOES public S3 objects are listed for the report hour where available. This is an availability manifest, not yet a rendered satellite image.
Generated figure copied from the local evidence-plot output. It is included as an analytic visualization, not as original sensor imagery.
7. Analytic Comparison
Criterion
Report Evidence
Analytic Treatment
Time constraint
2023-02-07T10:00:00+00:00
Directly used in propagation; this is a hard filter, not descriptive context.
Location constraint
42.26977, -93.64870
Directly used as observer point for azimuth/elevation/range computation.
Count / pattern
multiple-object/light language present
No compact same-launch count match; retained for unresolved report features.
Motion language
moving
Apparent motion labels in the object table provide a plausible but not definitive comparison.
Radar / official check
not specified
No ATC radar return can be consistent with distant orbital objects or visual aircraft-light hypotheses, but it does not prove the match.
Analytic disposition
normal-object
237UAP00203 is assessed as normal-object favored because the available public evidence gives a case-specific ordinary-object candidate: historical Starlink object traffic at the report spacetime. Dense satellite presence alone is not treated as causation in this packet.
8. Caveats, Limitations, and Collection Gaps
No raw cockpit video, ATC replay, radar plot, or witness interview transcript was reviewed unless explicitly stated in the public source text.
Aviation-derived coordinates can represent a nearby fix/radial or report point, not necessarily the actual line-of-sight intercept point.
Starlink visibility depends on illumination, observer altitude, atmospheric conditions, and apparent brightness; this analysis tests geometry, not photometry. No brightness model is used unless explicitly stated elsewhere in the case file.
TLE propagation is appropriate for screening and reconstruction but is not a substitute for authoritative operational ephemerides.
When many satellites are above the horizon, generic presence is weak evidence and is not treated as causation. The report emphasizes named launch-object checks or compact same-launch trajectory groups.
Normal-object favored is not the same as a perfect named-object identification; it requires a case-specific ordinary-object candidate stronger than simple object density.
Appendix A. Public Report Text Extracts
237UAP00203
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT
PRIMARY CODE: UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL PHENOMENON
Date: 10:00 02/07/2023 Callsign: UAL1164 Origin: SFO
Status: Closed Aircraft: B738 Destination: CYYZ
POD: DEN Tail Number: New Destination:
Reporting Facility: ZMP Operator: UAL Operator Type: Commercial
Paged: NO MOR Init: YES
MOR ID: ZMP-M-2023/02/07-0001
REMARKS
Multiple aircraft reported multiple unidentified aerial phenomenon 50 NM north of DSM moving to the ESE "well above them",
60,000+. The unknown phenomenon was bright flashing lights similar to landing lights. ATC advised them to file a UAP MOR.
ATSC and OMIC correlated the report to a STARLINK satellite train consisting of 3-4 groups of 4 units (approximately 20
satellites). FAA NORAD conferenced and concurs.
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT | DATE: 2023-02-07T10:00 | POD: DEN | PAGE 1 of 1
Appendix B. Computational Evidence Digest
This appendix preserves the principal computed values used in the assessment, shortened to the fields most relevant to audit and review.
This checklist records which source layers were actually applied to this individual report. It separates checked evidence from unexhausted collection gaps so the disposition is auditable when the PDF is read alone.
Source Layer
Status
Case-Specific Note
NARA public UAP/FAA report
reviewed
Source IDs: 237UAP00203
Time and observer coordinate
extracted
2023-02-07T10:00:00+00:00 at 42.26977, -93.64870
Orbital object propagation
screened
Starlink
Space-Track SATCAT metadata
screened
30 NORAD IDs checked; 30 matched in local SATCAT subset
Launch-object/SupGP layer
not applicable
not a launch-object case
NASA/JPL known small-body layer
not selected
CAD/Horizons secondary screen included when this case had NEO-relevant timing/geometry
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI context
not exhausted
Hourly weather, sky geometry, and space-weather context where local JSON is present
Aircraft/ADS-B layer
not exhausted
ADSB.lol historical release pattern is recorded separately; actual aircraft exhaustion requires targeted trace extraction
NOAA GOES imagery layer
not exhausted
Cloud/lightning imagery layer for the report hour
NOAA GOES ABI/GLM manifest
screened
Public S3 object listing for the report hour
NOAA/NEXRAD weather radar layer
not exhausted
Weather radar only; not ATC/primary radar
NOAA IGRA radiosonde layer
screened
Balloon drift plausibility layer
ASOS/METAR surface weather
screened
Nearest station visibility, cloud, wind, precipitation, and METAR observations
Weather/balloon source plan
planned
Nearest weather-airport, GOES, and radiosonde queries are listed where local plan JSON is present
Final analytic disposition
normal-object favored
Presence-only satellite density is context only; a stronger case-specific fit is required for normal-object disposition
References and Source Links
National Archives and Records Administration. Records Related to Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) and Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs) at the National Archives.https://www.archives.gov/research/topics/uaps
National Archives Catalog. Records from the Federal Aviation Administration Relating to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena, National Archives Identifier 493468575.https://catalog.archives.gov/id/493468575
Space-Track.org. Public source for the underlying U.S. Space Surveillance Network TLE distribution referenced by the historical TLE archive.https://www.space-track.org/