PUBLIC RELEASE SOURCE REVIEW ยท INDEPENDENT ANALYTIC CASE FILE
CASE FILE 97 / 237UAP00238
237UAP00238
Time/location anchored public UAP report; score 8
INSUFFICIENT / LOW ANOMALY VALUE
Report No.
UAP-OM-97-237UAP00238
Disposition
INSUFFICIENT / LOW ANOMALY VALUE
Primary Case
237UAP00238
Generated
2026-05-20 18:32 UTC
Report Time
2023-03-10T09:00:00+00:00
Observer
42.61120, -94.29480
Source Case IDs
237UAP00238
Abstract
This case file evaluates a reported UAP sighting against the available orbital-object layer. No compact same-launch group fully identifies the file by itself. The final disposition is assigned under a normal-object favored standard, where ordinary aerospace/orbital explanations are preferred when they reasonably fit the report.
This is a standalone independent analysis prepared from public-source records and public orbital datasets. It is not an official government determination, classification marking, or agency-authored report.
1. Executive Summary
237UAP00238 has too little discriminating evidence for a named identification. It is not treated as evidence of exotic activity; it is classified as insufficient/low-value until better sensor, aircraft, or weather data is available.
1.1 Key Findings
Source score 8 based on: UAP/UFO language.
Report time used: 2023-03-10T09:00:00+00:00.
External object layer used: Starlink.
Disposition standard: INSUFFICIENT requires case-specific causal fit. Satellite density above the horizon is context only and cannot by itself resolve the report.
No compact same-launch/designator group survived the report threshold.
No explicit Starlink/balloon wording was found in the source excerpt used for ranking.
1.2 Bottom Line
INSUFFICIENT / LOW ANOMALY VALUE: The report does not contain enough discriminating evidence for a named identification. It is not treated as evidence of exotic activity; it is a low-value insufficient case unless stronger sensor data appears.
2. Source Control
The source-control table identifies the public report records reviewed for this case and lists public access links where available. The table is included so this PDF remains interpretable when distributed by itself.
Aircraft reported an unidentified aerial phenomenon off the left side while ENE bound at FL370, in the vicinity of FOD. The unknown phenomenon were three very bright lights "very high in the sky" with various brightness rotating around each other rapidly. No evasive action. AWO advised.
Report time used
2023-03-10T09:00:00+00:00
Observer coordinate used
42.61120, -94.29480
Observer source basis
aviation_fix:vicinity of FOD (public text extract 237UAP00238)
4. Methodology
Spacetime extraction. The report time and observer coordinate were extracted from the public text report and normalized to UTC. Aviation fixes/radials were resolved during earlier preprocessing where applicable.
External object dataset. The object layer used historical Space-Track/TLE-derived Starlink element rows. The analytic mode for this case is historical Starlink element propagation and same-launch/designator sky grouping.
Propagation. Orbital elements were propagated to the report minute and observer location. For launch-object checks, samples around the report minute were retained. For Starlink group checks, objects above the horizon were clustered by sky position and filtered for same-launch groupings.
Comparison. The output was compared against the report's count of lights, direction cue, motion language, altitude/radar language, and whether the file itself already suggested a satellite explanation.
Causation standard. Mere object presence above the horizon is treated as background context only. A normal-object disposition requires a case-specific causal fit, such as a named launch object, a compact same-launch trajectory group, or source language that directly supports that object class.
Disposition assignment.Identified means a specific normal object fits the report spacetime and the hard reported features do not materially conflict. Normal-object favored means a case-specific ordinary aerospace/orbital candidate exists, but it is not a full named identification. Insufficient means the file is too thin to carry high anomaly value. High-value unresolved is used when radar, video, rapid maneuver, or multi-witness features remain after reasonable normal-object checks.
5. External Object Evidence
5.1 Search Volume and Density
This table is a screening layer only. Objects above the horizon show background opportunity; they do not establish causation unless a specific object or compact trajectory group matches the reported behavior.
Starlink catalog IDs considered
3754
Historical element rows
3753
Above horizon at report minute
186
At/above 10 deg
95
Largest same-sky cluster
78
No compact same-launch/designator group survived the report threshold. In this condition, satellite density remains context only and cannot by itself resolve a report with hard features.
5.2 Same-Launch / Same-Designator Candidate Groups
#
Launch Date
Count
Azimuth Span
Elevation Span
Motion Labels
Members
No same-launch group identified.
5.3 Primary Group Members
Object
NORAD
Launch
Az
El
Range km
Apparent Motion
Element Age h
No members available.
5.4 Bright-Sky Context: Top Starlink Objects by Elevation
Space-Track SATCAT metadata was pulled as a cached subset for NORAD catalog IDs appearing in this packet's evidence tables. This section adds owner/type/status context to the propagated object candidates.
Packet SATCAT subset rows
5370
Fetched
2026-05-19T01:19:50+00:00
This case NORAD IDs checked
30
SATCAT rows matched
30
Top owners
US: 30
Object types
PAYLOAD: 30
5.7 Space-Track Metadata for Top Propagated Objects
NORAD
Object Name
Type
Owner
Launch Date
Decay Date
48478
STARLINK-2728
PAYLOAD
US
2021-05-09
n/a
51108
STARLINK-3362
PAYLOAD
US
2022-01-19
n/a
47133
STARLINK-1843
PAYLOAD
US
2020-11-25
2026-04-06
53253
STARLINK-4133
PAYLOAD
US
2022-07-24
n/a
45062
STARLINK-1171
PAYLOAD
US
2020-01-29
n/a
52368
STARLINK-3834
PAYLOAD
US
2022-04-29
n/a
53843
STARLINK-4769
PAYLOAD
US
2022-09-19
n/a
44946
STARLINK-1110
PAYLOAD
US
2020-01-07
2024-04-11
52336
STARLINK-3823
PAYLOAD
US
2022-04-29
n/a
47912
STARLINK-2372
PAYLOAD
US
2021-03-14
2025-03-07
44733
STARLINK-1028
PAYLOAD
US
2019-11-11
2025-02-14
53856
STARLINK-4795
PAYLOAD
US
2022-09-19
n/a
5.9 NASA / NOAA / ADS-B Expansion Layer
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI batch context had not yet been written for this case at packet build time.
Requires targeted extraction from large daily history archives before claiming aircraft exhaustion.
NOAA GOES imagery
not yet exhausted
Needed for cloud/lightning visual context.
NOAA GOES ABI/GLM manifest
screened/present
Public S3 object availability for the report hour.
NOAA NEXRAD weather radar
not yet exhausted
Weather radar only; not ATC radar.
NOAA IGRA radiosonde
screened/present
Needed for balloon drift plausibility.
ASOS/METAR weather observations
screened/present
Nearest station surface observations around report time.
ADSB.lol historical: extract aircraft traces from adsblol/globe_history_2023 for 2023-03-10, then filter +/-60 min and 250 nmi around 42.6112,-94.2948.
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI: batch context for 237UAP00238 at 2023-03-10T09:00:00+00:00.
NOAA GOES: pull nearest ABI/GLM products for the UTC hour and render cloud/lightning map.
NOAA NEXRAD: select nearest radar stations and render Level-II/III weather radar sweep around event time.
NOAA IGRA: find nearest radiosonde station launches bracketing the event and model wind drift for balloon-like descriptions.
Space-Track gp_history/decay: fetch exact historical element rows and decay/reentry status for top candidate NORAD IDs.
5.12 Weather, Imagery, and Balloon Query Plan
This plan identifies the concrete free sources needed for the next case-specific weather and balloon checks. These are not treated as completed exclusions until the data are downloaded and plotted.
surface visibility ranged 0.5-10 statute miles; no precipitation was reported in the retained observations; low/broken/overcast cloud layers were present in at least one observation. Surface ASOS/METAR observations describe airport-level weather and visibility; they do not by themselves prove conditions at the sighting altitude or line of sight.
Nearest sounding implies mean 0-12 km wind drift toward 261.8 deg at 19.2 m/s; a passive balloon could drift about 138.2 km in two hours under this crude layer-average model. Radiosonde winds are sparse station soundings; balloon drift remains approximate without launch time, ascent rate, object altitude, and exact line-of-sight bearing.
Station
Name
Distance km
Sounding UTC
Mean drift bearing
Mean speed m/s
2h drift km
Max wind
USM00072558
VALLEY; NE.
223.50
2023-03-10T12:00:00+00:00
261.80
19.20
138.20
36.00 at 31123.00 m
5.17 NOAA GOES ABI/GLM Public File Manifest
GOES public S3 objects are listed for the report hour where available. This is an availability manifest, not yet a rendered satellite image.
This layer uses the downloaded ADSB.lol daily history archive to test actual aircraft tracks near the report coordinate and minute. It is not treated as a primary-radar substitute; it is a transponder/receiver-derived aircraft screen.
Archive window
2023-03-10T07:45:00+00:00 to 2023-03-10T10:15:00+00:00
Radius
300.00 nmi
Trace files scanned
0
Tracks retained
0
Support status
no specific aircraft candidate
Best-candidate note
ADS-B extraction does not support an aircraft explanation inside the selected window/radius.
Strong candidates
0
Plausible candidates
0
Reporting-aircraft tracks excluded
0
Weak candidates
0
5.19 Top ADS-B Candidate Tracks
Aircraft
Status
Score
Min dist km
Nearest dt min
Alt ft
Az
El
No retained aircraft candidates in the selected ADS-B extraction.
6. Annotated Evidence Figure
Generated figure copied from the local evidence-plot output. It is included as an analytic visualization, not as original sensor imagery.
7. Analytic Comparison
Criterion
Report Evidence
Analytic Treatment
Time constraint
2023-03-10T09:00:00+00:00
Directly used in propagation; this is a hard filter, not descriptive context.
Location constraint
42.61120, -94.29480
Directly used as observer point for azimuth/elevation/range computation.
Count / pattern
three-object/light language present
No compact same-launch count match; retained for unresolved report features.
Motion language
not explicit
Apparent motion labels in the object table provide a plausible but not definitive comparison.
Radar / official check
not specified
No ATC radar return can be consistent with distant orbital objects or visual aircraft-light hypotheses, but it does not prove the match.
Analytic disposition
insufficient
237UAP00238 has too little discriminating evidence for a named identification. It is not treated as evidence of exotic activity; it is classified as insufficient/low-value until better sensor, aircraft, or weather data is available.
8. Caveats, Limitations, and Collection Gaps
No raw cockpit video, ATC replay, radar plot, or witness interview transcript was reviewed unless explicitly stated in the public source text.
Aviation-derived coordinates can represent a nearby fix/radial or report point, not necessarily the actual line-of-sight intercept point.
Starlink visibility depends on illumination, observer altitude, atmospheric conditions, and apparent brightness; this analysis tests geometry, not photometry. No brightness model is used unless explicitly stated elsewhere in the case file.
TLE propagation is appropriate for screening and reconstruction but is not a substitute for authoritative operational ephemerides.
When many satellites are above the horizon, generic presence is weak evidence and is not treated as causation. The report emphasizes named launch-object checks or compact same-launch trajectory groups.
Appendix A. Public Report Text Extracts
237UAP00238
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT
PRIMARY CODE: UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL PHENOMENON
Date: 09:00 03/10/2023 Callsign: VIR156T Origin: LAS
Status: Closed Aircraft: B789 Destination: EGLL
POD: DEN Tail Number: New Destination:
Reporting Facility: ZMP Operator: VIR Operator Type: Commercial
Paged: YES MOR Init: YES
MOR ID: ZMP-M-2023/03/10-0001
REMARKS
Aircraft reported an unidentified aerial phenomenon off the left side while ENE bound at FL370, in the vicinity of FOD. The
unknown phenomenon were three very bright lights "very high in the sky" with various brightness rotating around each other
rapidly. No evasive action. AWO advised.
SKYWATCH INCIDENT REPORT | DATE: 2023-03-10T09:00 | POD: DEN | PAGE 1 of 1
Appendix B. Computational Evidence Digest
This appendix preserves the principal computed values used in the assessment, shortened to the fields most relevant to audit and review.
This checklist records which source layers were actually applied to this individual report. It separates checked evidence from unexhausted collection gaps so the disposition is auditable when the PDF is read alone.
Source Layer
Status
Case-Specific Note
NARA public UAP/FAA report
reviewed
Source IDs: 237UAP00238
Time and observer coordinate
extracted
2023-03-10T09:00:00+00:00 at 42.61120, -94.29480
Orbital object propagation
screened
Starlink
Space-Track SATCAT metadata
screened
30 NORAD IDs checked; 30 matched in local SATCAT subset
Launch-object/SupGP layer
not applicable
not a launch-object case
NASA/JPL known small-body layer
not selected
CAD/Horizons secondary screen included when this case had NEO-relevant timing/geometry
NASA POWER/Horizons/DONKI context
not exhausted
Hourly weather, sky geometry, and space-weather context where local JSON is present
Aircraft/ADS-B layer
screened
0 trace files scanned; 0 tracks retained; no specific aircraft candidate
NOAA GOES imagery layer
not exhausted
Cloud/lightning imagery layer for the report hour
NOAA GOES ABI/GLM manifest
screened
Public S3 object listing for the report hour
NOAA/NEXRAD weather radar layer
not exhausted
Weather radar only; not ATC/primary radar
NOAA IGRA radiosonde layer
screened
Balloon drift plausibility layer
ASOS/METAR surface weather
screened
Nearest station visibility, cloud, wind, precipitation, and METAR observations
Weather/balloon source plan
planned
Nearest weather-airport, GOES, and radiosonde queries are listed where local plan JSON is present
Final analytic disposition
insufficient / low anomaly value
Presence-only satellite density is context only; a stronger case-specific fit is required for normal-object disposition
References and Source Links
National Archives and Records Administration. Records Related to Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) and Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs) at the National Archives.https://www.archives.gov/research/topics/uaps
National Archives Catalog. Records from the Federal Aviation Administration Relating to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena, National Archives Identifier 493468575.https://catalog.archives.gov/id/493468575
Space-Track.org. Public source for the underlying U.S. Space Surveillance Network TLE distribution referenced by the historical TLE archive.https://www.space-track.org/